Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/31/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 20.0 target price for Revenio. Revenio will publish its quarterly report on Tuesday, September 8, which will also include a one-month contribution from the Visionix acquisition. We are looking to the report especially for visibility into the new entity: Visionix's current earnings performance, the initial steps of the integration, measures for the rest of the year, and the schedule of the upcoming rights issue. We consider it particularly essential to clarify the operational earnings performance and outlook amidst a major process. This will likely be made more concrete by the new guidance for the combined entity.  

Visionix consolidation causes significant deviation from consensus

We expect Revenio's revenue to have grown to around 41 MEUR in Q2 (Q2'25: 26.5 MEUR). We have included Visionix's June revenue in our estimates, assuming it was approximately 12 MEUR (which would correspond to an average month in 2025). This is subject to considerable uncertainty, as there is no information on Visionix's growth or seasonality. The consensus estimate for revenue is only 29 MEUR, which, in our view, does not include Visionix's revenue. This would mean revenue growth of about 9% for the "old Revenio", which we consider to be a realistic level.

We forecast adjusted EBIT to land at 7.5 MEUR in Q2 (Q2'25: 6.6 MEUR), which would translate to an adjusted EBIT margin of just over 18%. We forecast adjusted EBIT to land at 7.5 MEUR in Q2 (Q2'25: 6.6 MEUR), which would translate to an adjusted EBIT margin of just over 18%. In our forecast, Visionix's role remains minor, but it is nevertheless positive and explains the difference between our forecast and the consensus (adj. EBIT of 6.4 MEUR). In addition, our forecast includes 3 MEUR in one-off costs related to the M&A transaction, which weighs on the reported result. Overall, the Visionix acquisition and related integration costs are estimated to be 20 MEUR, but the share of costs to be booked in Q2 remains unclear.

We are looking to the report especially for future visibility

In the Q2 report, we are particularly looking for visibility into the new entity, where critical factors include Visionix's current earnings performance, the progress of the company's profitability program, the progress of integration and future measures, as well as the rights issue schedule. At the same time, we aim to determine the operational condition and outlook of the "old Revenio". Other important factors for earnings forecasts are the new PPA amortizations of intangible assets.

We expect Revenio to provide at least preliminary guidance for 2026 once the company has consolidated Visionix and formed a clearer view of the new entity's outlook. In our view, this is the most interesting single aspect of the report. We currently expect Revenio's revenue to be around 205 MEUR and its adjusted EBIT to be around 34 MEUR in 2026, against which the guidance can be mirrored. We believe that achieving the targeted synergies of over 20 MEUR is a prerequisite for value creation in the combined company. In this regard, we also hope to receive more information on the timing of the non-recurring expenses. 

Valuation will be recognized as outlook becomes clearer

Revenio's adj. EV/EBITA is 13x based on the 2027 estimate, which includes few synergies. If the company were to reach its targets in the Visionix acquisition in 2030, the EV/EBITDA multiple would be in the range of 4–5x. As integration progresses, a long period of uncertainty still lies ahead, but visibility will begin to gradually improve in the near future. Particularly after the rights offering, we expect uncertainty to decrease significantly. We acknowledge the uncertainty associated with our estimates, but we consider the risk/reward ratio of the stock to be exceptionally attractive.