Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/9/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Revenio but lower our target price to EUR 19.0 (was EUR 20.0). Q2 earnings fell short of our expectations due to the subdued development of "old Revenio," and the guidance for 2026 was also a bit disappointing. We lowered our estimates for the coming years, though the integration of Visionix appears to be progressing as planned. In our view, the valuation is attractive, but the dilution from the rights issue to be held later this year will be greater than we previously estimated due to the low share price.

Weakness in the core business caused earnings to fall short of expectations

Q2 revenue was 39.3 MEUR (+48%), which fell slightly short of our forecast of 41 MEUR. The shortfall was due to the core business, where sales (26.5 MEUR) remained at the level of the comparison period, although we expected growth of around 10%. According to management, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and weakness in Asia dampened demand. The 12.8 MEUR revenue contribution from Visionix, consolidated at the beginning of June, was well in line with our estimate of 12.1 MEUR. The company stated that Visionix's H1 performance was stable, but earnings are weighted toward the end of the year.

The result fell distinctly short of our forecasts, with adjusted EBIT at 5.8 MEUR (forecast 7.5 MEUR). The gross margin fell to 64.7% (Q2’25: 72.6%), driven by Visionix's dilution effect as well as an increase in Revenio’s unit costs, including tariffs and components. The level was weaker than we anticipated because we assumed price increases would offset costs. As volumes also missed expectations, the weakness trickled straight down to the bottom line. Reported earnings (2.4 MEUR) were also burdened by slightly higher-than-expected non-recurring items of 3.4 MEUR. Cash flow from operating activities was subdued, and the level of indebtedness is temporarily high, but the balance sheet will strengthen through the 80 MEUR rights issue.

Guidance provided, uncertainty remains

In its new guidance, Revenio estimates its exchange rate-adjusted revenue for 2026will be 190–205 MEUR and that its comparable EBITA margin will remain "at a satisfactory level.” The guidance was mildly disappointing in terms of revenue, leaving profitability rather unclear, as a “satisfactory” level has not been defined. We estimate it to be approximately 15-20%, which would largely align with our expectations (EBITA margin estimate of 18.6% vs. prev. 18.5%). Due to Visionix's structurally lower gross margin and heavier cost structure, Revenio's profitability will fall significantly but as expected.

Revenio had already secured 5 MEUR of the targeted 20 MEUR in synergies, which we view positively. According to management, Revenio's previous growth guidance (8-15% in 2026) would still be realistic after the weak Q2, as the sales pipeline contains potential large orders from both Revenio and Visionix. We lowered our operational earnings estimates for the coming years by 10–15%, due to the weaker market situation and the published pro forma figures. These figures provided us with a more realistic picture of the new company's margin profile. The biggest uncertainty now relates to how the company will perform in sales as a new entity.

Expected return is still attractive

Following yesterday's events, the share price has hit rock bottom yet again, and we deem the current valuation very low. The adjusted EV/EBITA is 13x based on our 2027 estimate, including limited synergies, and, in our view, the earnings expectations of it are far from optimal anyway. While the Q2 report did not eliminate uncertainty, visibility will still gradually improve after the upcoming Capital Markets Day and the rights issue. We maintain our Buy recommendation and still advise investors to be patient. Although we lowered our target price to reflect the share issue's expected lower subscription price, the negative estimate changes fit within our previous significant safety margin. We expect earnings to rise during the remainder of the year, the financial situation to become clearer, and confidence in the future to strengthen as a result.