Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/8/2026 at 10:00 am EET.

We raise our recommendation for Revenio to Buy (was Accumulate), but we revise our target price to EUR 26.0 (from EUR 28.0). The share price has continued its steep decline despite EBIT growth, and at the same time, the share's valuation has fallen to a practically historically low level (forward-looking EV/EBIT 15x). There are concerns surrounding the industry, especially after Zeiss's unpleasant profit warning, but we consider these concerns exaggerated for Revenio and estimate that the company's earnings are firmly on an upward trend this year. Revenio will publish its Q4 report on Wednesday at around 9:00 am EET. 

We expect a good result from a seasonally strong Q4

We estimate Revenio's Q4 revenue to have been 31.8 MEUR (+4% reported, +7% FX-adjusted). For the full year 2025, this would imply 8.6% currency-adjusted growth, while the company's guidance is 6-15%. We estimate that growth has been supported by deliveries of the renewed iCare MAIA microperimeter and iCare ST500 sales, in addition to the traditional core business. We estimate that the recurring business from software licenses, maintenance agreements, and probe sales accounts for roughly one-third of Revenio's revenue. We expect adjusted EBIT to have been 9.1 MEUR, which would imply a "normal" margin of 28.6% for the company for the period. We estimate gross margin remained at 70%, but earnings are weighed down by investments in US sales, clinical trials, and the FDA process for the iCare ILLUME solution. For the full year 2025, we expect EBIT to have increased by 11%, even though EPS, pressured by exchange rates, remains at the previous year's level. We expect the Board of Directors to propose a dividend of EUR 0.42 (2024: EUR 0.40), which would continue the long upward trend of the dividend. The company's balance sheet is strong and net debt-free.

We expect growth to accelerate, but there are also risks

We forecast Revenio's revenue growth to accelerate to double digits (11%) in 2026, which should be reflected in the company's guidance. Although the euro remains strong against the US dollar, at the current exchange rate of 1.18, this would no longer cause a significant headwind to reported growth after Q1. In addition to the traditional core business, growth is driven by iCare ILLUME screening solutions (incl. RetCAD), for example, which are again a step larger than last year. We expect the 2026 EBIT margin to be 26.6% (2025e: 25.2%). Overall, Revenio's guidance could be, for example, "currency-adjusted revenue growth of 7-15% and profitability at a good level excluding one-off items."

We made small negative revisions to our earnings estimates, and our 2026 earnings estimates decreased by less than 5%. Although we believe the outlook is still good, new dark clouds have appeared on the horizon. Carl Zeiss Medtech, one of the largest companies in the sector, recently issued a severe profit warning regarding its year-end results and simultaneously withdrew its full-year guidance. Although the company's problems were, in our view, concentrated in China (a small market for Revenio) and in a business segment in which Revenio is not involved, the company also lamented a weakened appetite for investment in the United States. The United States is Revenio's main market, so this represents a clear risk.

The valuation has sunk to a historical low for the iCare era 

Revenio's EV/EBIT is only 15x based on current year estimates, whereas during the iCare era, the corresponding multiple has mostly ranged between 20-30x. Although the company's earnings growth has slowed and there is more uncertainty in the market than usual, we believe this is a clear overreaction. Of course, there is a risk that the market has broadly deteriorated and Revenio, along with Zeiss, would be on the list of those suffering. However, we do not see any material changes in the longer-term drivers and consider Revenio's position in the industry to be very strong, which makes the prevailing uncertainty an attractive buying opportunity.