Roblon (Investment Case): Second guidance cut, but Q3 order intake and outlook signal a stronger 2026/27
Summary
- Roblon's Q1-Q3 2025/26 revenue decreased by 39% to DKKm 110.9, with negative EBITDA and EBIT before special items, leading to a second guidance cut for the financial year.
- Q3 showed signs of recovery with positive EBITDA of DKKm 1.2 and increased order intake, signaling potential improvement in 2026/27, particularly in subsea energy cables.
- Under the GPS-3 strategy, Roblon aims to reposition towards energy infrastructure, targeting DKKm 400+ revenue and DKKm 70+ EBITDA by 2029/30, supported by a strong balance sheet and recent portfolio simplification.
- Key risks include customer concentration, project volatility, and execution challenges, while current valuation metrics show Roblon trading at a premium to book value, indicating a recovery case.
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Roblon remains in a cyclical trough. Q1-Q3 2025/26 revenue fell 39% to DKKm 110.9 (DKKm 182.3), with EBITDA before special items of DKKm -6.3 (DKKm 43.7) and EBIT before special items of DKKm -14.4 (DKKm 33.3). In August, management cut its full-year guidance for the second time this financial year to DKKm 150-170 revenue, DKKm -10 to 0 EBITDA and DKKm -20 to -10 EBIT. The weakness is concentrated in Composite, where an offshore oil & gas customer working down excess inventory and an anticipated lull in subsea energy cable orders cut revenue by DKKm 77.8.
Q3 brought the first signs of a turn. EBITDA turned positive at DKKm 1.2, and order intake rose to DKKm 61.9 (DKKm 38.6), a book-to-bill of 163%, lifting the order book back to last year's level at DKKm 53.7. Management expects a higher activity level in subsea energy cables and overall in 2026/27, and cost adjustments are expected to cut costs by around DKKm 5 this year.
Under the GPS-3 strategy launched in March 2026, Roblon is repositioning towards critical energy infrastructure, targeting DKKm 400+ revenue and DKKm 70+ EBITDA by 2029/30. The portfolio has also been simplified through the sale of the loss-making US subsidiary in July 2025, leaving a DKKm 33.4 loan and a preference share booked at zero.
The key investment reasons are the repositioning towards structurally growing energy infrastructure, a strong balance sheet with a 73% equity ratio and DKKm 95.2 in total cash resources, and the early signs of recovery in Q3. The key risks are customer concentration, lumpy subsea cable projects with a pick-up only expected from 2026/27, execution on GPS-3, and small-cap liquidity.
Near-term earnings multiples offer little guidance, as the guidance implies negative 2025/26 EBITDA and EBIT. On EV/Sales, Roblon trades at 1.2x versus a peer median of 1.0x, and at DKK 93.2 the shares trade at a modest premium to book value of DKK 82.3 per share. We see Roblon as a recovery case, but reaching the 2030 targets would require a marked and sustained acceleration in both revenue and earnings from today's level.
For further insights into the Q3 results, you can watch the event we hosted with Roblon: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/roblon-praesentation-af-regnskabet-for-3-kvartal-202526
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Roblon for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg, CFA & Jacob Frehr 15:00 07/10/2026
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