In connection with the publication of Rovsing's annual report for 2025/26, we have updated our investment case, which covers investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives.

2025/26 was a weak year. Revenue landed at DKK 30.7m against DKK 37.0m the year before, EBITDA at DKK -3.5m against DKK 1.3m, and the net result at DKK -8.8m. Guidance for 2026/27 is revenue of DKK 27 to 34m and EBITDA of DKK -4m to 0m, a deliberately wide range given the uncertainty on when the outstanding tenders are evaluated. 

The central message from the report and the presentation is that the year was weighed down by delays and cost overruns rather than by lost business. Two larger projects with lead system integrators required significantly more resources to complete than planned, several projects stood still while waiting for customer input, material costs ran above budget, and the closing of the last activity in Kourou cost DKK 0.9m. Rovsing is seeking compensation for part of the cost increases, none of which is included in guidance.

The order figures tell the more important story. Order intake fell to DKK 11.9m from DKK 37.8m and took the backlog down to DKK 18.1m from DKK 39.7m, a book-to-bill of around 0.4 against the historical norm of roughly 1. At the same time the tender pipeline rose to DKK 151.5m as of 25 September, from DKK 140m in May. The backlog reflects the end of the last ESA budget cycle, the pipeline the beginning of the next.

The investment reasons are largely unchanged, but the weighting has moved towards the cycle. Rovsing holds direct relationships with all the major European prime contractors and space agencies in a market where testing is a mandatory step and the barriers to entry are high. The ESA Ministerial in November 2025 committed a record EUR 22.3bn for 2026/28, around 30% above the previous period, with Denmark raising its commitment to DKK 2.7bn. The order book has historically peaked mid-cycle, most recently at DKK 65m in 2023, and at an unchanged win rate a larger cycle should be capable of exceeding that level. Added to this is the optionality outside the institutional cycle, where the SLP200 product generation has begun deliveries to a US-based system integrator and the Marble Imaging partnership could generate first revenue in 2027. Neither is in guidance, and Lars Gregersen took over as CEO on 1 October with a commercial space network intended to broaden the customer base.

On the risk side more has changed. We have reframed the capital risk around working capital rather than the capital increase itself: the June rights issue and the conversion of the bond loan left equity at DKK 15.4m with current assets exceeding current liabilities by only DKK 2.0m, so a recovering order book will tie up capital ahead of revenue, and the annual report notes a material uncertainty related to going concern because the liquidity forecast assumes receipt of budgeted orders. Guidance is weighted towards the second half of the year, which makes it sensitive to award timing rather than to demand, and as a sub-supplier Rovsing depends on the primes closing their own contracts with ESA first, which is precisely what 2025/26 demonstrated.

On valuation, Rovsing trades at an EV/Sales of 1.5x for 2027E against a peer median of 1.9x, and at 1.5x against 2.9x on 2026E. The discount should be read against growth, as the peer median is around 23% in 2027E while Rovsing's guidance midpoint is around -1%. The closest peer in size, DAC, trades at 2.9x for 2026E despite a flat top line over the past two years.EV/EBITDA is not meaningful at the current earnings level, but the cost base is largely fixed and tender work is expensed up front, so the operational gearing is significant when the top line turns. 2023/24 illustrates it: revenue of DKK 39.3m delivered EBITDA of DKK 2.9m and a margin of 8%, with the order book at its DKK 65m peak. On today's EV of around DKK 45m, even that level of earnings is not cheap, so the case is not a return to the previous peak but whether a larger cycle can take the business beyond it.

Overall, the case in the near term is a question of order intake rather than of the quarterly result, and the first tender decisions fall during 2026/27.

You can hear more about the annual report and management's own comments on the pipeline in the event we hosted: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/rovsing-praesentation-af-arsrapport-202526

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Rovsing for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis and Victor Skriver, 01/10-2026, 15:00.