Sanoma Q4'25: The price tag for result growth is low

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/12/2026 at 8:35 am EET.

Sanoma's operational result in Q4 was well in line with our estimates, and the proposed profit distribution matched our estimate as well. The earnings guidance provided for the current year also fell precisely within our anticipated range. The company's outlook for earnings growth in the coming years is very good, and relative to this, the share valuation is moderate. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on the share. Considering minor estimate revisions, we revise our target price to EUR 11.5 (was EUR 11.3). The Q4 interview with Sanoma’s CEO can be viewed here.

Q4 figures showing expected development path

Sanoma's Q4 revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to 226 MEUR. Revenue decreased in both segments, as expected. Learning's revenue was adversely affected by the timing of curriculum renewals and the termination of low-value distribution contracts. Similarly, Media Finland's development was particularly hampered by the sluggish advertising market. Reflecting Learning's strong seasonality, Sanoma's Q4 EBIT came in at -27 MEUR, in line with our forecasts. Sanoma's earnings growth in 2025 was low, but this was anticipated due to the timing of Learning's curriculum renewals and the weakness of the advertising market, reflecting the sluggish economy in Finland as well. However, thanks to its strengthened financial position, the company will raise its dividend to EUR 0.42 per share as expected.

Guidance confirmed the earnings growth outlook we had forecast

Over the past two years, Sanoma has worked on the significant Solar earnings improvement program in its Learning business with the aim of achieving a clear improvement in profitability starting this year when the timing of curriculum renewals is expected to turn the market around. The company therefore issued guidance for the current year, indicating revenue of 1.29–1.34 BEUR and adjusted EBIT of 205–225 MEUR. This earnings guidance matches our earnings forecast exactly, confirming that the outlook for earnings growth is as expected.

Big picture of estimates remains unchanged

Overall, we have only made minor revisions to our estimates for the coming years. We predict that the company's revenue will grow slightly to 1.31 BEUR this year, while expecting clear growth in the group's result driven by Learning's growth in content sales. Our adjusted EBIT forecast for 2026 therefore remains unchanged at 215 MEUR, which is in the middle of the guidance range. We predict that the company's results will continue to grow in the coming years, as Learning's revenue is supported by growth in the learning materials market and Media Finland grows, driven by the positive development of the advertising market and subscription income. We therefore forecast rapid growth in earnings per share in the coming years (2025-2028e CAGR-% 16%).

Share price does not reflect projected earnings growth

With 2025 earnings, the share is valued at a P/E ratio of 16x (adj.) and the adjusted EV/EBITA ratio is 11x. In our view, these are slightly above the justified level, but the valuation picture will quickly change in line with the earnings growth we expect. Reflecting this, the adjusted P/E ratios for 2027–2028 fall to 11x and the corresponding adjusted EV/EBITA multiples are 10x and 9x. Thus, the projected earnings growth in the coming years, combined with our dividend yield forecast of around 5% on average, creates an attractive expected return. Our DCF model indicates a share value of EUR 11.8, suggesting that the share is quite attractively priced.