Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/17/2026 at 6:55 am EEST.

Scanfil's Q2 figures, published on Thursday, were operationally in line with our expectations, and we made virtually no changes to our forecasts for the coming years. The company's outlook is positive in both the short and longer term, and the stock's valuation has also decreased slightly in recent weeks (2026e: adj. EV/EBITA 12x). Thus, the stock's expected annual return has again become cautiously attractive in our view. We reiterate our EUR 12.50 target price for Scanfil but raise our recommendation to Accumulate (was Reduce). 

Direction and pace were in line with our expectations in Q2

Scanfil’s Q2 revenue grew by 28% to 259 MEUR, exceeding our estimate by 2%. Growth was driven by the ADCO and MB acquisitions (22 pp), while organic growth was just under 5%. The forecast beat came from the inorganic side and slight support from currencies (impact of ~1 pp). Scanfil's adjusted EBITA rose by 31% to 18.6 MEUR, which was practically in line with our estimate. Profitability increased slightly as expected with growth, as the earnings drag from new project ramp-ups likely already decreased. Operating cash flow was weaker than the result at 8 MEUR (-63% y/y) due to the commitment of working capital. Net debt/EBITDA was 1.6x, similar to Q1, marginally exceeding the company's target. Scanfil's balance sheet is in good shape overall. We commented on Scanfil's Q2 figures in more detail here on Friday.

We did not make any forecast changes after the report

As expected, Scanfil reiterated its guidance for 2026 of 940-1,060 MEUR revenue and 64-78 MEUR adjusted EBITA. In addition, the company expects H2 to be better than H1 in terms of both growth and profitability. The reiteration of the guidance and comments regarding H2 were exactly in line with our estimates. Based on the company's comments, the demand situation appears stably good despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The situation regarding components and raw materials also seems to be well under control for now, even if not all parts of the supply chain are operating optimally. Internally, Scanfil is in stable and reliable shape. We did not make any changes to Scanfil's short-term operational forecasts beyond a marginal fine-tuning following the report, but we slightly raised our financial cost forecasts due to the Q2 outcome and the working capital level likely remaining somewhat elevated. We forecast Scanfil's adjusted EPS to grow by around 15% by 2028, driven by acquisitions, a gradually recovering economic situation, and organic growth enabled by project wins. The main risks to our forecasts relate to external demand factors driven by the global economy, as well as the smooth functioning of the supply chain. However, we believe the risks associated with the latter factor are significantly smaller this time than in the aftermath of the COVID era.

Valuation is becoming cautiously attractive

Based on our estimates for 2026 and 2027, Scanfil's adjusted P/E ratios are 16x and 13x, while the corresponding EV/EBITA ratios are 12x and 11x. Next year's multiples, which are gradually gaining more weight, are slightly below the company's 5-year medians. Correspondingly, the 12-month expected return, consisting of earnings growth, a downside in multiples (Q2’26 LTM P/E 18x), and a dividend yield of just over 2%, slightly exceeds our required return. The share also has a slight upside relative to our DCF value. Relatively, Scanfil is undervalued by approximately 10-30% compared to global contract manufacturers, but the company's valuation is quite well in line with the mostly more moderately valued Nordic core peers. Thus, we believe the overall valuation picture again supports a positive view on the stock over a 12-month horizon.