Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/12/2026 at 08:28 am EEST

Source: Inderes

In terms of figures, Solar Foods' H1 report was slightly weaker than we expected. However, in our view, the current share price does not fully price in the company's improved financial position, the approaching Solein sales permits, and the confirmed supply agreements for Factory 02. Solar Foods' story has thus reached a critical turning point, bringing with it more positive short-term share price drivers in the news flow than usual. We revise our target price to EUR 6.0 (was EUR 5.3) and update our recommendation to Accumulate (was Reduce).

The US launch was not yet fully reflected in the figures

Solar Foods’ H1 revenue was 0.1 MEUR, below our 0.4 MEUR estimate We expected a stronger revenue contribution from Ambrosia Collective's orders, as it launched its first Solein-based consumer product in the US in June. During the quarter, Solar Foods' order book decreased from 1.5 MEUR to 0.2 MEUR. The decrease was due to Superb Food's decision to cease operations and liquidate the company, which had placed an order of 1.4 MEUR. However, due to the limited production capacity of Factory 01, a rapid ramp-up of revenue is not sensible, as Solein test batches are crucial for securing new customers, and a customer like Ambrosia could quickly monopolize a significant portion of the current capacity. The H1 operating loss of 6.8 MEUR was larger than our 5.9 MEUR estimate. The undershoot was due to higher-than-expected costs from the share issue completed earlier in the year, as well as lower-than-expected capitalization of expenses on the balance sheet, which mitigates the earnings miss. Following the share issue earlier in the year, the company had a net cash position of 11.5 MEUR, which provides breathing room to advance the Factory 02 project.

Factory 02 investment decision approaches, rising price of competing whey protein supports interest in Solein

The investment decision for Factory 02 is expected to be made this year. In our view, this will necessitate obtaining Solein's sales permit in Europe, an FDA "no questions" letter in the US, and converting MoUs totaling 6.4–7.65 kilotons into binding supply agreements. We believe this news could quickly decrease Solar Foods' risk profile, as securing supply agreements for Factory 02 would improve the financing prospects for both the company and Factory 02. The price of Solein'sclosest competitor, whey protein, has risen significantly in recent years, and global demand is expected to grow faster than supply. This improves Solein's pricing conditions, as a result of which we have raised its sales price in our estimates. However, the impact on profitability is limited by assumptions of a higher electricity price, which is critical for Solein's production. In connection with the update, we have also postponed our forecasts for licensing revenue further into the future, as this has not progressed significantly in light of the news flow, and based on Solar Foods' communications, Factory 02 is clearly at the core of the current strategy period.

The fair value range is wide, but the news flow offers an attractive setup

Due to Solar Foods' significant investment needs and cash flows being far, the range of outcomes for the investment case is exceptionally wide. This is reflected in our fair value range, which relies on DCF model scenarios and is set at EUR 2.1-10.6. However, we believe the share offers an interesting setup, as investors can join the story at almost the same price as the spring offering, despite the company's improved financial position and potential upcoming share price drivers. In our view, the financing news from the beginning of the year and the demonstrated support from investors and strategic partners like Fazer and GEA reduce especially the short-term risk level of the share. However, due to Solar Foods' significant future investment needs and early stage of development, the share's risk profile remains very high.