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SP Group (Investment Case): Record H1 calls for new 2030 targets

SPGResearch03.09.2026 klo 12.30

Jacob Frehr, Rasmus Køjborg

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Summary

SP Group reported a record Q2 2026 with a 44.6% revenue increase, 29.4% of which was organic, and raised its revenue growth guidance twice during the period.
All product groups showed growth in H1, with Foodtech leading at 61%, and the company maintained a 20.3% EBITDA margin despite a weaker mix.
Management confirmed 2030 targets based on 6–9% annual growth, with current performance suggesting these targets could be met earlier than planned.
SP Group trades at a premium to peers at 8.8x EV/EBITDA (2026E) and has returned 39.1% YTD, with further expansion dependent on exceeding H2 growth guidance and maintaining margins.

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In connection with the publication of SP Group's Q2 2026 interim report, we have updated our investment case.

SP Group delivered its third consecutive record quarter. Q2 revenue grew 44.6 %, of which 29.4 % was organic, up from 11.3 % organic growth in Q1. For the half year, revenue rose 32.9 % to DKK 1,950m, EBITDA grew 36.2 % to DKK 397m at a 20.3 % margin, and EBT increased 50.3% to DKK 248m. Guidance was raised twice during the period, to 22–28 % revenue growth on 10 July and to 24–30 % on 19 August, while the 19–21 % EBITDA margin and 11–13 % EBT margin ranges were left unchanged.

Growth was broad-based, with all four product groups expanding in H1: Foodtech +61 %, Cleantech +40 %, Other +37 % and Healthcare +18%. Subsupplier projects grew 37 % against 21.6 % for own products, yet the EBITDA margin held at 20.3 %, suggesting that volume, automation and Ide-Pro are offsetting the weaker mix. Net interest-bearing debt fell to DKK 1,341m, or 1.9x EBITDA at 30 June, leaving room within the 1.0–3.5x policy range for further acquisitions. In August, SP Group added OGM Moulding for GBP 18.0m fixed plus up to GBP 6.0m in earn-out at 4.8x EV/EBITDA, adding two UK plants and a Box-Build capability. Shareholder returns were maintained alongside the acquisitions with a DKK 4.0/share dividend and a DKK 40m buyback programme.

Management confirmed on the earnings call that the 2030 ambitions of approximately DKK 4.5bn revenue, DKK 950m EBITDA and DKK 600m EBT, set in March 2025, were based on 6–9% annual growth including only minor acquisitions and did not assume deals of the size of Ide-Pro and OGM. With rolling 12-month revenue at DKK 3.43bn and consensus at DKK 4.26bn for 2027, the revenue ambition looks attainable in 2028, two years early, making a revisit of the targets a potential new reference point for the market.

Our investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspectives.

The key investment reasons center on SP Group's proven buy-and-build strategy with a 10-year revenue CAGR of 8.4% and disciplined acquisition multiples, structural support from the Healthcare (35%), Cleantech (29%) and Foodtech (14%) end markets, and an EBITDA margin that has expanded from 12.4% in 2015 to 20.3% in H1 2026 on a rising share of own products, more of the value chain and automation.

The key risks include the Ide-Pro acquisition being larger and priced above historical bolt-ons at 7.6x EV/EBITDA, with OGM adding a second integration to manage, some customer concentration with the top 10 representing 49% of FY 2025 revenue, and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict lifting raw material and energy prices.

From a valuation perspective, SP Group trades at 8.8x EV/EBITDA (2026E), a 9% premium to the peer median of 8.0x, but at 12.4x EV/EBIT versus 19.1x for peers, as the company converts more of its EBITDA into operating profit than peers do. The share has returned 39.1% YTD against a peer median of 5.8%, which has closed the EV/EBITDA discount seen in the spring. Further expansion likely requires H2 to beat the 15–27% growth implied by the full-year guidance and for margins to hold.

For more insights into the results and the outlook, you can watch the management presentation of the Q2 2026 results here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/sp-group-presentation-of-the-quarterly-report-for-q2-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from SP Group for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg and Jacob Frehr, 11:30, 03/09-2026

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SP Group is a Danish plastic manufacturer that produces moulded items in plastics and plastic composites and performs surface coatings on metal items. The company is listed on the Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen Stock Exchange. It dates back to 1972 and is headquartered in Denmark. SP Group is a leading supplier of plastic-manufactured products to Danish industries. It services its clients through its factories in Denmark, Sweden, China, the USA, and Eastern Europe and its products are sold and marketed in around 90 countries. The Company offers a number of collective competencies through its different plastics processing plants which create synergy both internally among the plants and externally in partnerships with customers. The largest customer groups in terms of revenue are Healthcare, Cleantech, Food-related and Automotive, which adds up to around 75% of sales. SP Group is part of the OMX Copenhagen Mid Cap Index.