Spin-off setbacks, but the stock has overreacted
Q1 was operationally in line with expectations, and we kept our forecasts unchanged in the big picture. However, the biggest news yesterday was that the Banking business will unexpectedly remain part of the group, which was disappointing. In 2024, we expect the company’s earnings to be at the level of the comparison period, due to a challenging market, but to grow moderately in the coming years. Our forecasts are clearly below the company’s target levels. With the share price decline, the valuation picture has become very attractive from several perspectives (2024e P/E 11x, adj. P/E 8x, DCF EUR 28, SOTP EUR 26 and expected return ~20%).
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