contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


tecnotree-profitability-pressures-and-better-cash-flow

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Roni Peuranheimo

Atte Riikola

Tecnotree operates in the IT sector. The company specializes in the development of digital communication solutions. The services include, for example, business process services and subscription management for corporate customers in telecom and other digital service providers. Operations are held on a global level, with the largest presence in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Same here. It wasn’t allowed to go at 11 cents even though the company was in restructuring. Hoping for a significant increase this time as well, or for it to remain listed on the exchange.

I have been with the company since the last time they tried to take it private. I didn’t sell back then, and I won’t accept this offer either. I see the same “signs in the air”—they are trying to “screw out” retail investors before the company’s potential rise.

The terms state that the consortium can purchase shares from the market during the tender offer. But we’re in a quiet period right now… Not very smart timing if they are serious about buying  Or maybe Helios is using a nominee-registered account for the purchases. Volumes have definitely dropped significantly this week.

The company hasn’t exactly given investors much to cheer about. Employees, on the other hand, have been quite handsomely rewarded. Based on the share price history, it’s clear that hardly anyone is currently in the green on paper. Last autumn, the price even dipped near takeover bid levels, so this isn’t exactly a very uplifting situation. Personally, I intend to see this through to the end as well.

Reflections on the takeover bid’s poker game and the “dam” of fundamentals In my opinion, the Tecnotree takeover bid (€5.70) currently looks like a classic opportunistic “poker bluff.” Management and Helios know the cards and are trying to buy the pot just as the company’s operational turnaround is materializing. It is hard not to see a “strangle effect” here: the share price has possibly been kept low by emphasizing dilution and allowing payment terms to stretch, so that an exit path from the stock exchange would open up cheaply. The formation of a blocking front (Kakkonen & Nieminen) is a critical countermove. If the 90% threshold is not reached, the buyers must either raise the offer significantly or accept the continuation of the company’s journey as a listed entity. In the latter scenario, the motivation for the share price to languish disappears: now that dilution is “baked in” through the CCD (Compulsorily Convertible Debenture) conversions, management will be forced to start optimizing cash flow and clearing receivables to restore trust. Risks are still present. If the offer fails and global market sentiment weakens, the price could drift back while waiting for the fundamentals to materialize. However, Helios’s involvement suggests that an “insider” solution has finally been found for the payment difficulties in Africa. In the long run (5–7 years), the company’s value could be many times the current offer if the cash flow “dam” truly breaks. Now we will see whose poker face holds up in March. Personally, I am ready to see the cards through to the end. At the very least, any leftover shares will remain in the portfolio as a reminder of the dangers of risky investments.

tecnotree.julkinen-ostotarjous.fi              Julkinen ostotarjous                              Whatever happens here, at least the direction and strategy for Tecnotree are known. Tecnotree is focusing its efforts on emerging markets and will somehow integrate with Helios’s other investment targets. This will certainly require product development and investment, mainly in Fintech applications. Free cash flow is not on the horizon for a few years. In the short term, the risk level will rise, but in the long term, the opportunities are interesting. Tecnotree’s services are used at some level by over a billion users. This doesn’t mean you can directly sell anything to over a billion people, but it shows how much of a touchpoint there is through customers (operators). In Africa, for example in Nigeria, the state is guiding citizens toward becoming digital wallet users, and since the beginning of this year, it has started restricting cash withdrawals and has also made them expensive. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2025/CCD/CIRCULAR%20ON%20REVISED%20CASH-RELATED%20POLICIES.pdf This opens an even stronger foothold for operators to handle banking services, as traditional banking services are available to only a few in Africa. For instance, major players like Ericsson and Amdocs offer their technology platforms (Ericsson market share 20% and around 100 million active users?), but operators or partner banks must arrange the banking licenses. https://www.f5.com/case-studies/ericsson-wallet-platform-drives-financial-inclusion-empowerment. As I understand it, CAB Investment has these licenses ready, which significantly eases the role of the operators. Crown Agents Bank awarded international money transfer operator licence from the Central Bank of Nigeria - Crown Agents Bank The target size of the Helios V fund behind the Tecnotree takeover bid is approximately 750 million dollars, with the intention to invest in about 10–12 targets. Early Warning System). The only large investment I found was 100 million dollars last September into an Indian fintech firm. https://m2pfintech.com/  Regarding CAB Payments, Helios is also enabling (increased and modified the original offer) a share swap if the offer goes through. https://www.heliosinvestment.com/news/statement-re-possible-offer-for-cab-payments-holdings-plc  CAB’s market value is close to 250 million, and Helios originally held 45%, so buying it entirely with cash would be a fairly significant portion of the fund’s investments. Only about 5% of CAB’s owners are retail investors, with many institutions, so it could succeed through a share swap.  At Tecnotree, retail investors account for about 30%, which is high even by Finnish standards. I personally don’t believe a 90% cash offer will be achieved even by raising the offer. But as stated in the offer documents, a qualified majority (2/3) enables a merger/fusion, and in my opinion, this is what the consortium is seeking authorization for. A direct merger with, for example, CAB is perhaps unlikely because banking licenses are strictly regulated. Some kind of operational merger would be possible. Tecnotree is debt-free. It has 25 million in cash and 70 million in receivables. Cash flow is around 5 million. A strong foothold in the world’s fastest-growing markets. Personally, I hope Tecnotree remains listed (and also gets listed in London). The cash offer would have to double for me to consider selling my shares.

Could you or would you like to elaborate on your calculation in more detail? I haven’t done my own calculations on the average price of K2’s holdings.

Tecnotree

Tecnotree's Q3 figures exceeded our forecasts in terms of revenue and underperformed in terms of profit. The strong cash flow was the highlight of the report, and the company did well in repatriating receivables during the quarter.

<p>Tecnotree's Q3 figures exceeded our forecasts in terms of revenue and underperformed in terms of profit. The strong cash flow was the highlight of the report, and the company did well in repatriating receivables during the quarter. Pressures on profitability are currently intense and the report led us to make modest cuts to our earnings forecasts for the coming years. </p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	64.2	70.5	76.0
growth-%	21.6 %	9.8 %	7.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	23.7	15.5	17.0
EBIT-% (adj.)	36.9 %	22.0 %	22.4 %
EPS (adj.)	1.17	0.70	0.83
Dividend	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)	25.1	8.0	6.7
EV/EBITDA	17.5	4.2	2.8

Tecnotree: Profitability pressures and better cash flow

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Key Estimate Figures24.10.2022

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