contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
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            year
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            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
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            dividend
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            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
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            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


tokmanni-dollarstore-improves-earnings-growth-outlook

__typename

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summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

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reactionGroups

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Analyst

Olli Vilppo

Tokmanni Group is a variety discount retailer in the Nordics. The group has stores in Finland, Sweden and Denmark under the brand names Tokmanni, Dollarstore, Big Dollar, Click Shoes and Miny. In addition, Tokmanni has online stores. Tokmanni's headquarter and logistics centres are located in Mäntsälä, Finland. Dollarstore is headquartered in Kista, Stockholm with a central warehouse in Örebro. The group own a procurement company located in Shanghai together with a Norwegian discount store chain Europris.

These predictions often age quite poorly, but I personally see a relatively high probability of a negative profit warning. During the first three quarters of the year, the operating profit has been 35.5 million, and the full-year guidance is 85–95 million. The guidance is given for comparable operating profit, but there aren’t significant discrepancies compared to the actual figures. It’s probably not impossible to reach that lower end, as the end of the year has notoriously always been the best for Tokmanni, but they would have to sell quite aggressively to get there. Reaching the upper end of the guidance would already require a massive success. No two years are alike, but for comparison, during Q1-Q3 last year, Tokmanni made an operating profit of 51.8 million and guided for a full-year operating profit of 98–110 million. At that time, the lower end of the guidance was slightly exceeded by reaching a comparable operating profit of 99.7 million. DollarStore seems to be the millstone, even though the Tokmanni segment is doing well. I am personally bothered by the nearly 5% drop in customer numbers at DollarStore. Now that the product assortments at DollarStore have been largely harmonized with Tokmanni’s products, this decrease in customer numbers is quite a red flag. This could suggest that DollarStore’s previous customers have left the new goods on the shelves. It may take a long time for new customers to discover the conceptually revamped DollarStore, and therefore I don’t believe in rapid growth in customer numbers; hence, the rest of the year will likely be difficult on the Swedish side as well. And potentially for a long time after that. For a while now, I’ve been thinking about the right moment to jump on board with Tokmanni, but perhaps now is not yet that moment.

OP reminded us as recently as Thursday about Tokmanni’s profit warning risk. Personally, I think this past week was the most critical time. Of course, the risk still exists, but if the guidance is lowered to any significant degree after Christmas, it will certainly diminish my confidence in management’s ability to understand the company’s business performance. In addition to the result, its structure is also essential. Stagnating sales of Tokmanni’s winter coats won’t dent the investment story, but the development of DollarStore is a much more critical matter.

There is that Goldman 5% threshold notification.  Someone knowledgeable could break down what this cocktail actually means… In it, there is a 1.3% ownership stake balanced by 3.07% in lending, and 1.1% worth of 13 different swaps with various maturities… Tokmanni Group Corp: Notification in accordance with Chapter 9, Section 10 of the Securities Markets Act (The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) | Tokmanni Group Corporation Tokmanni Group Oyj: Arvopaperimarkkinalain 9. luvun 10. pykälän mukainen ilmoitus (The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) | Tokmanni Group Corporation

This talk of profit warnings kept haunting the back of my mind, and I finally ended up selling my small position at break-even. After a sluggish start to the year, even reaching the lower end of the earnings guidance will require a strong performance in the final quarter. The early winter weather hasn’t been very favorable for winter clothing and outdoor equipment either. This was a bit of a misguided purchase from the start for lack of better ideas, and I certainly didn’t want it to become a long-term burden in my portfolio. That’s why I sold, even though it’s not necessarily expensive compared to Puuilo, for example.

Tokmanni’s communication is shapeless and faceless. And once again, Kyösti Kakkonen’s face is in the news. In Ilta-Sanomat, at least there’s also the soft bucket, from behind which Tokmanni speaks.                   iltalehti.fi              Näin Tokmanni reagoi Kyösti Kakkosen jouluehdotukseen: ”Muistutamme...”    Tokmanni irtisanoutuu perustajansa Kyösti Kakkosen näkemyksestä.                                               Ilta-Sanomat – 17 Dec 25              Kyösti Kakkonen ehdotti joulun siirtämistä viikonloppuun – Tokmannilta...    Kauppaketju irtisanoutuu perustajansa kannoista.                             The most enlightened ones at least remember that Kakkonen has sold Tokmanni to foreigners and it is now under Danish ownership.

Tokmanni itself now had the opportunity to mention Kakkonen and gain free visibility, sometimes even vice versa. Additionally, during the peak season, it could have been indicated that, for a good Tokmanni, employees have earned their public holidays, without the commentary committing to anything. It’s good that communication is on the ball.

Tabloids haven’t yet named Kyösti as Finland’s Goldfinger, even though it would be more fitting for Endomines’ largest owner.

Tokmanni Group

Tokmanni's Q2 results were close to our expectations, and we finally saw positive development in comparable EBIT. Inflation continues to a burden on the company, especially in own costs, but we expect the sales margin to continue to recover, supporting the earnings growth outlook. We also remain cautiously positive on the acquisition of Dollarstore. 

<p>Tokmanni's Q2 results were close to our expectations, and we finally saw positive development in comparable EBIT. Inflation continues to a burden on the company, especially in own costs, but we expect the sales margin to continue to recover, supporting the earnings growth outlook. We also remain cautiously positive on the acquisition of Dollarstore. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	1,168.0	1,402.8	1,707.4
growth-%	2.3 %	20.1 %	21.7 %
EBIT (adj.)	85.7	98.8	126.0
EBIT-% (adj.)	7.3 %	7.0 %	7.4 %
EPS (adj.)	1.03	1.07	1.28
Dividend	0.76	0.78	0.80
Dividend %	6.7 %	10.5 %	10.7 %
P/E (adj.)	11.0	7.0	5.8
EV/EBITDA	6.7	6.1	4.9

Tokmanni: Dollarstore improves earnings growth outlook

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Key Estimate Figures04.08.2023

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