contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Arttu Heikura

Tokmanni Group is a variety discount retailer in the Nordics. The group has stores in Finland, Sweden and Denmark under the brand names Tokmanni, Dollarstore, Big Dollar, Click Shoes and Miny. In addition, Tokmanni has online stores. Tokmanni's headquarter and logistics centres are located in Mäntsälä, Finland. Dollarstore is headquartered in Kista, Stockholm with a central warehouse in Örebro. The group own a procurement company located in Shanghai together with a Norwegian discount store chain Europris.

Mr. Saastamoinen at least always seems to be on the buying side. For example, last year in June, when we received a negative profit warning in July. The CEO’s investment admittedly raises more belief in avoiding a negative profit warning, considering that it is a retiring leader. But we’ll see.

Unless there’s too poor visibility from the ivory tower to the real action, and the numbers surprise again. I haven’t really been able to figure out if this is cheap or expensive. Although investor sentiment is quite negative, I would still say the company isn’t dirt cheap. I need to wade through Arttu’s extensive report to get some more substance.

Personally, I don’t fear a negative announcement due to large insider purchases. There must be quite a few masochists among them if they put a good amount of their own money on the line two or three weeks before a negative announcement.

Indeed, many are quite justifiably asking what was paid for the expansion into Sweden. According to the original story, a successful chain with a good concept was bought, which was then to be tuned up for better financial performance. Now that the entire DollarStore is being transformed in a Tokmanni-like direction, was something other than a warehouse full of junk, leased retail locations, and a competitor removed from the market ultimately bought?  I personally believe that the truth lies somewhere between a highly successful chain and a bankrupt outlet. And yet, the investment might be perfectly fine at these multiples. Indeed, there are casualties and struggling discount stores in Finland’s economic history. In 2003, Aholaita, with 27 stores, went bankrupt after nearly 40 years of operation. The fates of Tiimari and Anttila are somewhat further afield in terms of industry. And Kärkkäinen also went through debt restructuring before its new rise. But instead of painting devils on the wall, I just bought more Tokmanni for my portfolio and I’m timing with a stopwatch how long it takes for a negative outlook (negari) to hit after the purchase

I wonder if the feedback is from before or after Tokmanni. Tokmanni is raising its price profile, which might significantly change customer perception. These things usually have a delay; an old reputation can last for a couple of years even if the situation has worsened. It also works the other way around; positive development shows with a delay.

As is known, Dollastore’s profitability has been clearly poor, but I looked up Dollarstore/Big Dollar’s Google reviews in Sweden and Denmark with a quick Google search. Based on them, customers seem to be satisfied with the chain’s service. I didn’t find any store with an average below four stars in the reviews, and in Denmark, Big Dollar’s reviews were even slightly better. Among competitors, Rusta’s stores were also rated below a 4-star average in Sweden, but Jula’s stores, on the other hand, were on average at the same level as Tokmanni.

Arttu has prepared a comprehensive report on Tokmanni, and like other extensive reports, it is available for everyone to read, meaning there are no paywalls.  Tokmanni’s investor story is in a transition phase, as the company makes changes to Dollarstore’s business model and aims to boost its domestic growth through SPAR cooperation. The stock appears nominally inexpensive, but positive share price development requires restoring investor confidence by demonstrating sustainable earnings growth. Due to a lack of short-term price drivers and an elevated risk level, we maintain our reduce recommendation. We reiterate our target price of 7.7 euros, with forecasts remaining unchanged.                   Inderes              Tokmanni laaja raportti: Suurten muutosten aika - Inderes    Tokmannin sijoittajatarina on siirtymävaiheessa, kun yhtiö tekee muutoksia Dollarstoren liiketoimintamalliin ja pyrkii piristämään kotimaan kasvuaan SPAR-yhteistyön avulla.                             Quoted from the report: Return on Capital In our opinion, Tokmanni’s return prospects, which historically generated good returns on capital, have weakened. This is largely explained by the balance sheet inflated after the Dollarstore acquisition and a lower earnings level than historically. We therefore forecast the company to generate a return on capital below its required return for the next few years, after which it will rise to 12%, exceeding our set required return (WACC 10.4%). At this point, the business can be seen to create value, although it requires successful earnings improvement. The capital-light business model itself enables good returns on capital, although Dollarstore’s earnings level relative to the balance sheet value allocated to it is currently weak. When assessing Tokmanni’s value creation, we believe it is most important to examine the return on invested capital, as an stretched balance sheet gives a rosy picture of the return on equity relative to the business’s true value creation capability.

Tokmanni Group

Tokmanni hosted a CMD on Tuesday, where it announced its updated strategy for 2024-25. Growth will continue, driven by Sweden and Denmark instead of Finland. We made forecast changes that focus especially on 2025 thanks to higher store opening plans than expected.

<p>Tokmanni hosted a CMD on Tuesday, where it announced its updated strategy for 2024-25. Growth will continue, driven by Sweden and Denmark instead of Finland. We made forecast changes that focus especially on 2025 thanks to higher store opening plans than expected. Tokmanni's share price has risen clearly since our last update, so we feel the previously low valuation is catching up with the earnings growth potential. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	1,168.0	1,393.0	1,672.7
growth-%	2.3 %	19.3 %	20.1 %
EBIT (adj.)	85.7	99.7	118.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	7.3 %	7.2 %	7.1 %
EPS (adj.)	1.03	1.04	1.19
Dividend	0.76	0.78	0.80
Dividend %	6.7 %	10.6 %	10.9 %
P/E (adj.)	11.0	7.0	6.2
EV/EBITDA	6.7	6.5	4.3

Tokmanni: Takeaway from CMD: growth continues

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Key Estimate Figures14.02.2024

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