contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


tokmanni-weakening-margins-will-ease-toward-end-year

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Olli Vilppo

Tokmanni Group is a variety discount retailer in the Nordics. The group has stores in Finland, Sweden and Denmark under the brand names Tokmanni, Dollarstore, Big Dollar, Click Shoes and Miny. In addition, Tokmanni has online stores. Tokmanni's headquarter and logistics centres are located in Mäntsälä, Finland. Dollarstore is headquartered in Kista, Stockholm with a central warehouse in Örebro. The group own a procurement company located in Shanghai together with a Norwegian discount store chain Europris.

Yes, the net profit in my comment was indeed estimated to be around €1 per share. So the net profit would be approximately €59M.

As transportation costs are rising and inflation risk is rearing its head, one has to hope that some benefit can be derived from those high inventory levels. Of course, this assumes that the inventory consists of substantial batches of fast-moving goods rather than fan shirts for a boy band that disbanded in 2011 or something similar. I understood that back in the day, Dollarstore largely operated by having wholesalers deliver goods directly through the store doors. That is not necessarily a winning strategy if there are even slight disruptions in the flow of goods or if procurement prices start fluctuating rapidly.

High inventory levels and slow inventory turnover will likely cause problems for profitability.

This evening, I was pondering the probability of Dollarstore’s earnings continuing to decline in 2026. The year 2025 was very weak for the segment, and now in Q4, the company seems to have achieved a fairly reasonable result (stable or a slight increase) for Dollarstore. Thus, my interpretation is that Dollarstore’s earnings should rise in 2026. There is some upside in the share price if Dollarstore’s earnings remain unchanged or rise slightly and the Tokmanni segment grows slightly. If Dollarstore’s earnings rise significantly and Tokmanni’s earnings grow slightly, there should be quite a significant upside here. The balance sheet has indeed been tight in 2025, but given that potential earnings growth, it shouldn’t be an issue. If earnings continue to decline, the risks regarding the balance sheet will also increase. My view at this stage is that 2026 will be a better year than 2025. In my opinion, it’s pointless to rely on multiple expansion at this point, as investor confidence in the company has eroded due to highly volatile performance.

Our congregation member brother Arttu testifies strongly. I too saw a prophecy to that effect in the Inderes preview, and the words of Inderes’ other preacher from the end of last year echoed in my head, according to which the stock has significant upside if there is no profit warning for Q4. Because man is weak in his faith, a significant part of my Tokmanni position has been subject to a game of buying and selling even at the beginning of this year. The end result, however, is that every possible collection bag has now been emptied and the chips have been heavily concentrated behind Tokmanni. On Friday, the portfolio heads towards paradise or hell.

Here is a pre-earnings report on Tokmanni from Arttu; the company will release its results this Friday.  Tokmanni will report its Q4 results on Friday at 8:00 AM, and we will be following it on the earnings livestream starting at 7:50 AM. The earnings improvement promised in Q3 appears to have materialized, as the company has not issued a profit warning for 2025. In our view, this also increases the likelihood of earnings returning to growth at the beginning of 2026. Given this, we believe the stock’s valuation is moderate and the risk-reward ratio attractive, which is why we are upgrading our recommendation to Accumulate (prev. Reduce). We believe the uncertainty surrounding the earnings turnaround has decreased, leading us to raise our target price to EUR 9.0 (prev. EUR 7.7).                   Inderes              Tokmanni Q4'25 -ennakko: Luvattu tulosparannus toteutui loppuvuonna - Inderes    Q3:lla luvattu tulosparannus näyttää toteutuneen.

It is not at all optimistic, but no guarantee can be made, as there has been work to do with optimizing the balance sheet (debt) lately due to the weak level of earnings. In early spring 2023, it was anxiously hoped that spring would start later than usual, as it took longer than expected for Asian products to arrive in Finland. In 2024, the company decided to order seasonal goods earlier than usual just to be safe, and at that point, Asian seasonal products were already in stock in Q4’24.

Tokmanni Group

Tokmanni's Q4 result was close to our expectations, but the 2023 guidance and the underlying comments on the development of the different cost items were more positive than we expected. Inflation...

<p>Tokmanni's Q4 result was close to our expectations, but the 2023 guidance and the underlying comments on the development of the different cost items were more positive than we expected. Inflation still holds consumers' purchasing power hostage, but increased price awareness in customer behavior seems to have strengthened, which we believe supports Tokmanni's development. The company's own strategic work also remained good. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	1,168.0	1,215.7	1,289.1
growth-%	2.3 %	4.1 %	6.0 %
EBIT (adj.)	85.7	90.0	101.7
EBIT-% (adj.)	7.3 %	7.4 %	7.9 %
EPS (adj.)	1.03	1.07	1.23
Dividend	0.76	0.78	0.80
Dividend %	6.7 %	9.3 %	9.5 %
P/E (adj.)	11.0	7.9	6.9
EV/EBITDA	6.7	5.2	4.3

Tokmanni: Weakening of margins will ease toward the end of the year

Login required

Key Estimate Figures13.02.2023

Forum discussions