contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


neste-volume-growth-renewable-products-hand

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Who can tell how much Neste sells on the spot market and how much with longer-term contracts?

HVO futures have risen back to virtually multi-year highs after a short dip

EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target | Latest Market News

argusmedia.com – 16 Dec 25              Viewpoint: European HVO prices unlikely to ease in 2026 | Latest Market News    Northwest European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) premiums have firmed on the year in 2025, setting the stage for continued strength as the market braces for higher blending targets in 2026.

According to VARA’s consensus, Neste would, for example, sell only 4.564 million tons of renewables next year (2026) and only 5.3 million tons in 2027. However, Neste’s nominal annual capacity for renewables is already 5.5 million tons, and by 2027 it should be as high as 6.8 million tons. So, the estimates for sales volumes are quite cautious compared to the capacity. This means that only 83% of the nominal capacity would be sold in 2026 and only 78% in 2027. Surely maintenance shutdowns don’t reduce it that much? Below is VARA’s current table (from Neste’s website).

So, currently, capacity is being run at full throttle, and more capacity will come sometime late next year or early 2027, is that correct? At what point does Neste start selling future production, what is the typical lead time for these? I assume that a large part is sold through fixed, pre-agreed contracts vs. spot sales.

It has previously been customary to provide a comment at the end of the quarter in connection with the company’s pre-silent period. At that time, forecast changes were made if necessary, when more comprehensive data on the quarter’s margin was available. Now, the company no longer holds these pre-silent periods, so there is no direct external trigger for a comment/update. It is true that at the time of the last update, the German decision was not finalized, but there was speculation about it. Now, it indeed seems that the demand volume for renewable diesel will increase with that decision. Market expectations, of course, included growth expectations, but their scale was more uncertain. The outcome was positive, but I believe that the increase in market price seen since the beginning of summer also partly included some level of expectations for this. In our Q3 report, the forecast for Renewables’ margin for next year increased, reflecting market developments. The direct growth in market demand (volumes) does not directly benefit Neste, as Neste practically already sells at full capacity, considering that annual maintenance shutdowns and typical production bottlenecks mean that the capacity utilization rate in such an industrial business does not reach 100% over time. This means that volume growth for Neste is dependent on operational performance and how much volume can be produced from the refineries. But the growth in demand for the renewable diesel market (measured in volumes) does not directly drive Neste’s volumes higher until more can be produced there. Of course, market demand and supply then affect the price of renewable diesel in the spot market. Many other factors also influence this, as a result of which the price is susceptible to fluctuations (see image below). In summary, what I am trying to highlight is that it is difficult to directly assess how the growing demand due to Germany’s decision provides grounds to change the forecast for Neste’s achieved selling price and thus the level of gross profit in 2026. In my opinion, this dilemma is partly illustrated by the fact that Neste tried to guide the full-year sales margin level in 2024, but then when it had to be revised a couple of times during the year, it was clear that even the company finds it very difficult to estimate its own margin a year ahead. Now we are in a model where it is not guided at all. This illustrates that legislation and policies guiding the market change, the supply/demand balance changes, and the company’s own operational performance also varies. In addition, it must be remembered that it is not publicly known (at least not yet, perhaps we will hear in connection with the financial statements) how many annual contracts the company has made for next year, and especially at what price level. All this is typical for heavy industry, whose end product is priced in global markets according to supply and demand. However, I constantly evaluate the assumptions in the forecasts and their realism, and they are updated if there is a reason to change something.

Neste

Neste will publish its Q1 report next Friday at around 09.00 am. We have lowered our short-term estimates in both Renewables and Oil Products, but the estimate changes that were limited to the...

<p>Neste will publish its Q1 report next Friday at around 09.00 am. We have lowered our short-term estimates in both Renewables and Oil Products, but the estimate changes that were limited to the current year weren’t major on an annual basis.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	25,707.4	26,344.5	24,158.0
growth-%	69.7 %	2.5 %	-8.3 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,898.0	2,620.5	2,843.3
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.3 %	9.9 %	11.8 %
EPS (adj.)	3.02	2.77	2.96
Dividend	1.52	1.39	1.50
Dividend %	3.5 %	7.6 %	8.2 %
P/E (adj.)	14.3	6.6	6.1
EV/EBITDA	11.3	4.7	4.1

Neste: Volume growth in Renewable Products is at hand

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Key Estimate Figures24.04.2023

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