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Third party research

Arctic Paper: Difficulties continue - ABG

Arctic Paper

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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Q2e: Clean paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m
Challenging markets
Fair value range of SEK 25-70


Q2e Paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m

We expect Q2 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m, down from PLN 12m in Q1'25. We expect volumes to show a decline, while lower realised prices will likely weigh on earnings. We expect lower Pulp EBIT q-o-q, driven by weaker demand and prices alongside continued high pulpwood costs. Hence, we expect Q2e group EBIT of ~PLN -18m vs. PLN -10m in Q1'25. We lower our FY'25e estimates mainly due to the weaker pulp market, but note that the FY'25e Paper EBIT also is down following softer demand and lower prices recently. Following weak profitability, Rottneros conducted a rights issue in Q2, and Arctic Paper has acquired 10m new shares in the subsidiary. Post-issue, Arctic holds 55% of the share capital in Rottneros.
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