Careium: At the end of a rough stretch - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q4e: 4% organic sales growth, 11% adj. EBITA margin
* We cut estimates on the downgraded outlook
* Trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA
The final quarter of a tough year
We expect Q4 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 227m and SEK 24m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 4% and a margin of 11%. We expect 2% organic sales in the Nordics, primarily driven by Norway as Q4'24 included financial lease sales of SEK 15m, which toughens the comps. Moreover, we expect the UK & Ireland to grow sales by 8% organically, which is offset by an FX-effect of -9%. On margins, we expect the gross margin to remain strong as it has been throughout '25, but expect increased opex y-o-y to lead to a lower adj. EBITA margin y-o-y (10.8% vs. 12.4%).
Estimates cut on downgraded outlook
We lower '25e-'27e sales by 1-2%, respectively, primarily due to the recent downgraded outlook which leads us to cut UK products sales by 6-4% in '25e-'27e, as well as updated FX assumptions. While the changes to our sales estimates are limited, we expect lower margins as product sales generally carry higher margins, and we assess that the lowered guidance primarily referred to product sales. As such, adj. EBITA is lowered by 7-2% in '25e-'27e, on both negative scale effects from the lowered sales and different sales mix.
Share trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA
On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA, where we highlight '25e-'27e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 21%, respectively. Careium will face lighter comps in '26e due to the lack of financial lease contracts in comparative quarters, and as such '26e growth will likely serve as more equitable indication of Careium's underlying performance. Moreover, the new CEO Tove Christiansson will join the company in Q2'26.
* We cut estimates on the downgraded outlook
* Trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA
The final quarter of a tough year
We expect Q4 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 227m and SEK 24m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 4% and a margin of 11%. We expect 2% organic sales in the Nordics, primarily driven by Norway as Q4'24 included financial lease sales of SEK 15m, which toughens the comps. Moreover, we expect the UK & Ireland to grow sales by 8% organically, which is offset by an FX-effect of -9%. On margins, we expect the gross margin to remain strong as it has been throughout '25, but expect increased opex y-o-y to lead to a lower adj. EBITA margin y-o-y (10.8% vs. 12.4%).
Estimates cut on downgraded outlook
We lower '25e-'27e sales by 1-2%, respectively, primarily due to the recent downgraded outlook which leads us to cut UK products sales by 6-4% in '25e-'27e, as well as updated FX assumptions. While the changes to our sales estimates are limited, we expect lower margins as product sales generally carry higher margins, and we assess that the lowered guidance primarily referred to product sales. As such, adj. EBITA is lowered by 7-2% in '25e-'27e, on both negative scale effects from the lowered sales and different sales mix.
Share trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA
On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA, where we highlight '25e-'27e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 21%, respectively. Careium will face lighter comps in '26e due to the lack of financial lease contracts in comparative quarters, and as such '26e growth will likely serve as more equitable indication of Careium's underlying performance. Moreover, the new CEO Tove Christiansson will join the company in Q2'26.