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Third party research

Energy Save: Weaker sales but better cost control - ABG

ES Energy Save Holding

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* Q3 sales SEK 46m (vs. ABGSCe 60m), EBIT -3m (vs. ABGSCe -2m)* Better than expected cost control* Inventory levels down, FCF positive in the quarter (vs. SEK -5m LY)Q3 resultsQ3 sales were weaker than expected at SEK 46m (-9% y-o-y and -22% vs. ABGSCe 60m). The softer sales were mainly due to a continued inventory build-up among customers during the quarter. The company states that it saw a clear recovery in the OEM business primarily during the latter part of Q3 and sales to OEM customers have now resumed. Meanwhile, ES-branded sales were up both y-o-y and q-o-q and were SEK 18m (vs. 15m LY), reflecting stronger momentum in the company’s own distribution network. Despite weaker sales, the company demonstrated better cost control than expected thanks to its recent cost-saving initiatives and EBIT was SEK -3m (vs. ABGSCe -2m, -5m LY). Furthermore, it was encouraging to see that inventory levels decreased y-o-y, with FCF turning positive in the quarter at SEK 1m (-5m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 32m (52m LY).Estimate changes and outlookOn numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales is impacted by negative 6-3% and EBIT by SEK -1m (vs. FY'25e estimate of SEK -18m). On outlook, ES guides for continued recovery and growth into Q4, supported by resumed OEM sales and the ongoing rollout of its R290 heat pump range, which is now subsidy-eligible across many key markets in Europe.ValuationPrior to today's report, the share was down -16% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 11x-4x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates.
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