Fastpartner: Outlook taking a hit - ABG
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* Q4 numbers largely in-line with expectations
* Large move-out in Q1 weighs on outlook
* 2026e P/CEPS of 14x vs coverage average of 16x
Rec. PTP +1% on stronger NOI margin
Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rec. PTP 1% ahead of our forecast, driven by lower operating costs in the quarter, with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y). This was somewhat counteracted by higher central administration costs and net financials. The proposed dividend was SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), compared to our expectations of SEK 1.10 and Infront consensus of SEK 1.20.
Underestimated termination weighs on outlook
The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), and occupancy adjusted for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Furthermore, the average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60% at year-end. Despite these supporting data points, the IFPM guidance was down 8.1% q-o-q to SEK 790m NTM. The driver is the Nasdaq premises in Frihamnen being vacated by year-end, where the previous guidance apparently assumed it would be fully let once vacated. According to management, it has ongoing discussions with potential tenants for the premises, some of which it had expected to materialise into signed leases in H2'25, but which have been prolonged. While we already had the termination in our estimates, it seems the lease was larger than we previously expected, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~9% for '26e-'27e. On the back of this we are 0.6% ahead of the IFPM guidance NTM.
2026e P/CEPS of 13x, coverage average of 16x
The share is trading at 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, below the average in our coverage of 15x. On 2025 P/EPRA NRV, the share is trading at 0.49x compared to the average in our coverage of 0.85x. On the back of the larger than expected impact from the Nasdaq termination we expect CEPS growth of -4% in 2026e, and +5% in 2027e, taking the average to +1% vs the average in our coverage of 9%.
* Large move-out in Q1 weighs on outlook
* 2026e P/CEPS of 14x vs coverage average of 16x
Rec. PTP +1% on stronger NOI margin
Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rec. PTP 1% ahead of our forecast, driven by lower operating costs in the quarter, with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y). This was somewhat counteracted by higher central administration costs and net financials. The proposed dividend was SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), compared to our expectations of SEK 1.10 and Infront consensus of SEK 1.20.
Underestimated termination weighs on outlook
The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), and occupancy adjusted for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Furthermore, the average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60% at year-end. Despite these supporting data points, the IFPM guidance was down 8.1% q-o-q to SEK 790m NTM. The driver is the Nasdaq premises in Frihamnen being vacated by year-end, where the previous guidance apparently assumed it would be fully let once vacated. According to management, it has ongoing discussions with potential tenants for the premises, some of which it had expected to materialise into signed leases in H2'25, but which have been prolonged. While we already had the termination in our estimates, it seems the lease was larger than we previously expected, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~9% for '26e-'27e. On the back of this we are 0.6% ahead of the IFPM guidance NTM.
2026e P/CEPS of 13x, coverage average of 16x
The share is trading at 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, below the average in our coverage of 15x. On 2025 P/EPRA NRV, the share is trading at 0.49x compared to the average in our coverage of 0.85x. On the back of the larger than expected impact from the Nasdaq termination we expect CEPS growth of -4% in 2026e, and +5% in 2027e, taking the average to +1% vs the average in our coverage of 9%.