Generic: Margins over volumes - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q4 growth partly offset by SMS volumes
* Raising EBITA by 7-6% for '26e-'27e
* 11-9x EV/EBITA on '26e-'27e, ~20% below historical median
Softer quarter due to volumes
Generic reports its Q4'25 on 12 February, and we expect sales of SEK 50m, representing 4% y-o-y growth, driven by continued DOCS momentum, although held back a little by softer SMS volumes and macro sensitivity. We expect gross profit of SEK 22m, implying a gross margin of 44%. We expect EBIT of SEK 11m, a margin of 22%, affected by somewhat higher personnel cost expectations related to recent management and organisational changes.
Stabilising growth but increasing gross margin in '26e-'27e
For Q4e, we keep sales flat but raise EBITA by ~10%. Following a softer 2025, marked by pricing pressure and increased competition across the sector, we expect sales growth to pick up in '26e-'27e. Generic operates with 22 employees, resulting in one of the highest sales per employee among Swedish tech peers, which we see as supportive of further operating leverage. We expect an EBIT margin of ~23-24% in '26e-'27e, driven by platform scalability, growing SaaS revenue and continued cost discipline.
Trading below its historical EV/EBITA
Generic is currently trading at 11-9x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below its historical median. DOCS remains a growth and margin driver, with continued penetration among municipalities, with potential upside from new verticals and pricing over time. RCS is generating customer interest but is in an early rollout phase, with little-to-no adoption so far. We are waiting for Apple to enable RCS in the Nordics, which should allow for better margins over time. Overall, as Generic continues to selectively invest in its platform and security, while maintaining cost discipline, it should support higher EBIT margins over time.
* Raising EBITA by 7-6% for '26e-'27e
* 11-9x EV/EBITA on '26e-'27e, ~20% below historical median
Softer quarter due to volumes
Generic reports its Q4'25 on 12 February, and we expect sales of SEK 50m, representing 4% y-o-y growth, driven by continued DOCS momentum, although held back a little by softer SMS volumes and macro sensitivity. We expect gross profit of SEK 22m, implying a gross margin of 44%. We expect EBIT of SEK 11m, a margin of 22%, affected by somewhat higher personnel cost expectations related to recent management and organisational changes.
Stabilising growth but increasing gross margin in '26e-'27e
For Q4e, we keep sales flat but raise EBITA by ~10%. Following a softer 2025, marked by pricing pressure and increased competition across the sector, we expect sales growth to pick up in '26e-'27e. Generic operates with 22 employees, resulting in one of the highest sales per employee among Swedish tech peers, which we see as supportive of further operating leverage. We expect an EBIT margin of ~23-24% in '26e-'27e, driven by platform scalability, growing SaaS revenue and continued cost discipline.
Trading below its historical EV/EBITA
Generic is currently trading at 11-9x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below its historical median. DOCS remains a growth and margin driver, with continued penetration among municipalities, with potential upside from new verticals and pricing over time. RCS is generating customer interest but is in an early rollout phase, with little-to-no adoption so far. We are waiting for Apple to enable RCS in the Nordics, which should allow for better margins over time. Overall, as Generic continues to selectively invest in its platform and security, while maintaining cost discipline, it should support higher EBIT margins over time.