* Q1: Organic growth of +7% despite tough comps (vs. ABGSCe -15%)
* Customer with financial constraints back to normal order cadence
* We raise organic growth ests. for '26e to +25% (+15% previously)
Q1 results
Q1 sales were much stronger than we expected at SEK 53m (+7% org, -14% FX), +27% vs. ABGSCe. EBIT was also higher at SEK 19m, vs. ABGSCe SEK 9.8m. The company continued its positive gross margin trend, with a record high margin of 60% (56% 2025), which it attributes to ongoing work with producers and a favourable customer mix. A key highlight was that the previously constrained customer appears back to normal order patterns and contributed to Q1 volumes.
Estimate changes
We raise '26e/'27e/'28e sales by 6%/5%/5%, mainly on higher organic growth assumptions for '26e (+25% vs. +15% previously), as I-Tech's second-largest customer is back to a normal order cadence, a recovery we had not previously fully incorporated in our '26e. We also expect growth to be supported by rising CMP volumes and ongoing momentum among smaller customers (PPG, Jotun, Kansai Paints). Our raised sales estimate also lift our '26e-'28e EBIT estimates by 10%/5%/9%, partly offset by SEK 10m of costs for the ongoing EOGRT study (split between '26e/'27e).
Remain positive long term
Our long-term view on I-Tech is unchanged. Selektope is currently used on around 3,500 of the ~110,000 commercial vessels globally, leaving plenty of room to grow in both new-build and drydocking. The drydocking market is roughly 10x the size of new-build, and is where we see the bigger long-term opportunity. China stands out as a key geography where I-Tech's penetration in the maintenance market is still low relative to the size of the local fleet and the volume of drydocking activity. The company is trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 11x-4x, and 16x-9x P/E, i.e. ~40-60% below peers.