* Sales -15%, adj. EBITA -15% vs. ABGSCe, -15% org. growth * '26e-'28e adj. EBITA estimates likely down 5-10% * Share to focus on cash flow and market activity
Q1 details
Infrea delivered a slightly soft report in a small quarter. Organic sales was -15% y-o-y, and EBITA margin a bit weak driven by project mix and investments in machinery and people. In Q4'25, Infrea sold the Water & Sewage segment. We included the segment in the comparable numbers for '25. Sales came in at SEK 319m (-15% vs. ABGSCe), -15% organic (+3% Q4'25), driven by both Land & Construction and Paving services. Adj. EBITA declined SEK 6m to SEK -11m in Land & Construction (vs ABGSC at -7m, Q1'25 at -5m) while EBITA was flat in Paving Services at SEK -35m (+2% vs. ABGSCe at -36m). EBITA margin came in at -15.2% (ABGSCe -11.3%) driven by project mix and a colder winter vs. 2025.
Estimate changes and outlook
Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, we know the market is tough in some regions. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's positive internal development in terms of good cash flow and comments about tenter activity to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '26e-'28e adj. EBITA to come down 5-10%.
Final thoughts
A slightly soft report with in a small quarter with sales and adj. EBITA below with our expectations. The share has underperformed the broader market into numbers (L1M) and is trading at 7-5x EBITA '26e-'28e. We believe that the market will focus on the continued positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work.