Medicover: New targets confirm the long-term story - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* 0%/-3% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q4
* Cons estimates likely flat on adj. EBITDA '26e, up mid-term
* New targets 9% above ABGSCe target expectation on earnings
Q4 results
Medicover reported a solid Q4 with sales in-line and a small miss on adj. EBITDA vs cons (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons). Q4 sales came in at EUR 612m (-1% vs ABGSCe, 0% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +11% (ABGSCe +11%). Adj. EBITDA in Q4 was 95m (0% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons), for a margin of 15.5% (ABGSCe 15.4%, cons 15.9%). Total NRI in Q4 was EUR -5m (ABGSCe EUR -3m, cons EUR -4m). HS delivers an in-line result, with sports/wellness as well as the ambulatory business continuing to support revenue. The company highlights that India shows double-digit growth in local currency. DS looks somewhat better in terms of margin, supported by FFS growth. Cash flow from operating activities look strong in the quarter, up 56% y-o-y. Overall, solid report with continued growth and margin expansion, as expected. The softness highlighted ahead of Q4 by management is said to show early signs of recovery.
New targets and estimate changes
As we expected, the company presented new targets for 2026-2028 yesterday evening, including 1) organic revenue >EUR 3.25bn and 2) organic adj. EBITDA >EUR 600m by 2028, alongside 3) ND/EBITDAaL ≤3.0x and a dividend payout of up to 50% of net profit. The sales target is ~2% below our >EUR 3.3bn expectation, while the adj. EBITDA ambition is ~9% above our >EUR 550m expectation. The leverage target is below what we expected (ABGSCe <3.5x). Management points to attractive end markets and a strong track record, with network expansion, efficiency gains and tech investments supporting continued organic growth and margin expansion within a disciplined financial framework. More detail to follow at the investor update on 11 February. Estimates likely flat on the report for FY’26e. However, given the new targets yesterday, we believe cons will lift their mid-term estimates.
Share view
The stock has been flat into the report and we expect it to trade up more than 5% today given the solid report and new targets.
* Cons estimates likely flat on adj. EBITDA '26e, up mid-term
* New targets 9% above ABGSCe target expectation on earnings
Q4 results
Medicover reported a solid Q4 with sales in-line and a small miss on adj. EBITDA vs cons (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons). Q4 sales came in at EUR 612m (-1% vs ABGSCe, 0% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +11% (ABGSCe +11%). Adj. EBITDA in Q4 was 95m (0% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons), for a margin of 15.5% (ABGSCe 15.4%, cons 15.9%). Total NRI in Q4 was EUR -5m (ABGSCe EUR -3m, cons EUR -4m). HS delivers an in-line result, with sports/wellness as well as the ambulatory business continuing to support revenue. The company highlights that India shows double-digit growth in local currency. DS looks somewhat better in terms of margin, supported by FFS growth. Cash flow from operating activities look strong in the quarter, up 56% y-o-y. Overall, solid report with continued growth and margin expansion, as expected. The softness highlighted ahead of Q4 by management is said to show early signs of recovery.
New targets and estimate changes
As we expected, the company presented new targets for 2026-2028 yesterday evening, including 1) organic revenue >EUR 3.25bn and 2) organic adj. EBITDA >EUR 600m by 2028, alongside 3) ND/EBITDAaL ≤3.0x and a dividend payout of up to 50% of net profit. The sales target is ~2% below our >EUR 3.3bn expectation, while the adj. EBITDA ambition is ~9% above our >EUR 550m expectation. The leverage target is below what we expected (ABGSCe <3.5x). Management points to attractive end markets and a strong track record, with network expansion, efficiency gains and tech investments supporting continued organic growth and margin expansion within a disciplined financial framework. More detail to follow at the investor update on 11 February. Estimates likely flat on the report for FY’26e. However, given the new targets yesterday, we believe cons will lift their mid-term estimates.
Share view
The stock has been flat into the report and we expect it to trade up more than 5% today given the solid report and new targets.