* Q2 broadly in line across most line items
* '26e-'28e adj. EBITDA -0.7%/-0.4%/-0.4% on weaker Romania
* FVR unchanged at SEK 190-270 on minor estimate revisions
Broadly in line, Romania weighs
Revenue grew 7.3% y-o-y to EUR 640m, with org. growth accelerating to 11.8% from Q1's 10.3%, though still below last year's 13.9%. The group adj. EBITDA margin rose 20bps y-o-y to 17.1%. Healthcare Services' (HS) EBITDA margin was 18.4% (18.6%), coming off a strong Q2'25 when HS EBITDA was up 41%. Romania and Polish hospitals were the main drag, while India delivered a strong quarter (+23%, ~40% LCCY). Continued improvement in Polish sports/wellness also contributed positively. Diagnostic Services expanded its margin to 18.8% (+110bps). Growth was broad-based, with FFS and special immunology in Germany, blood-drawing point expansion in Poland, and Synlab integration in Romania, plus a richer test mix and SEE synergies. Romania's political instability and elevated inflation look like being a lasting headwind for HS rather than just a tough quarter, though management remains confident, pointing to six straight quarters of margin gains. Cash generation has stayed strong throughout, with OCF up 28% y-o-y and leverage steady at 2.9x.
Only minor estimate changes
As the quarter was broadly in line, we make only small adjustments to our estimates. We lower group adj. EBITDA by 0.7%/0.4%/0.4% for '26e-'28e, concentrated in Healthcare Services. We now assume Romania's pressures will persist a little longer, and trim our 2027e organic growth estimate for HS accordingly.
FVR unchanged at SEK 190-270
We leave our FVR at SEK 190-270 given the limited scale of our revisions. The share is currently trading at 10.4x/8.8x EV/EBITDA for '26e/'27e, compared with a peer group of developed-market healthcare providers at a median of 7.7x/7.2x EV/EBITDA for '26e/'27e, and a developing-market peer group at 32.2x/26.4x. We estimate a 5.8-7.2% FCF yield for '26e/'27e and a dividend yield of 1.2-1.4%.