Medicover: Weather is set to be a drag - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q1'26 numbers due on 29 April at 07:45 CET
* Near-term caution, but the model should continue to prove itself
* Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280)
Q1'26 should be marked by cold weather
We expect colder-than-usual temperatures and severe weather warnings in Poland, Germany and Romania to have impacted patient activity in Q1, although an improvement in March likely softened the overall impact. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 7% and an EBITDAaL margin of 10.0%, as lower activity during periods of severe weather should be partly offset by continued operational progress and improving efficiency across the network. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 6% and an EBITDAaL margin of 15.9%, with volumes also likely affected by disrupted patient flows. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 607m, driven by organic growth of 7% and adj. EBITDA of EUR 97m, corresponding to a margin of 16.0%, up 30bps y-o-y.
Near-term volumes down, but margins should be protected
Ahead of Q1, we lower our estimates to reflect our expectation of weaker short-term activity and FX, taking down adj. EBITDA by 2% for '26e-'28e, but with no changes to the long-term case. If anything, our recent Warsaw visit reinforced our view of Poland as a key growth and margin driver over the coming years, supported by a more margin-accretive capex mix, improving utilisation and stronger network effects. We therefore continue to see scope for profitable growth as the Polish business scales, while the operating improvements delivered over the past quarters should help protect margins despite softer Q1 volumes.
Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280)
On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 190-270 (200-280). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 9x-12x.
* Near-term caution, but the model should continue to prove itself
* Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280)
Q1'26 should be marked by cold weather
We expect colder-than-usual temperatures and severe weather warnings in Poland, Germany and Romania to have impacted patient activity in Q1, although an improvement in March likely softened the overall impact. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 7% and an EBITDAaL margin of 10.0%, as lower activity during periods of severe weather should be partly offset by continued operational progress and improving efficiency across the network. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 6% and an EBITDAaL margin of 15.9%, with volumes also likely affected by disrupted patient flows. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 607m, driven by organic growth of 7% and adj. EBITDA of EUR 97m, corresponding to a margin of 16.0%, up 30bps y-o-y.
Near-term volumes down, but margins should be protected
Ahead of Q1, we lower our estimates to reflect our expectation of weaker short-term activity and FX, taking down adj. EBITDA by 2% for '26e-'28e, but with no changes to the long-term case. If anything, our recent Warsaw visit reinforced our view of Poland as a key growth and margin driver over the coming years, supported by a more margin-accretive capex mix, improving utilisation and stronger network effects. We therefore continue to see scope for profitable growth as the Polish business scales, while the operating improvements delivered over the past quarters should help protect margins despite softer Q1 volumes.
Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280)
On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 190-270 (200-280). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 9x-12x.