* Q3'26: Margin held up but volumes did not
* We cut '26e-'27e EBITA by 7-2%, mainly on North Europe
* Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 7x
Solid margins but soft growth
Q3 missed on sales but less so on earnings (-4% on sales, -5% on adj. EBIT, i.e. SEK 3m). The gross margin was the bright spot at 29% (1.0pp above ABGSCe) on a better own-brand mix, but it could not fully offset -3.7% organic growth. The Nordics was soft on top-line (-3% org growth) and adj. EBIT fell to SEK 62m from SEK 65m on a softer price/mix and higher marketing. North Europe was the weak link, with adj. EBIT down to SEK 2m from SEK 7m on -10% organic sales after retailer de-listings and the summer heatwave. South Europe narrowed its loss to SEK -1m from SEK -6m on 10% organic growth against easy post-fire comps.
Pressure could remain in Q4
Management’s commentary on costs leads us to believe that the elevated cost base in Q3 could continue into Q4. Retailer de-listings should continue to weigh on own-brand sales, while management gives no timeline for when the measures will take effect. Cost inflation has not yet recovered through pricing, and continued marketing investments add more pressure. With the R12M adj. EBIT margin at 4.3% against the >8% 2027 target, management is deepening its brand portfolio review and intends to concentrate capital on fewer brands. We expect Midsona to prioritise margins over growth, but we believe that margin improvements in North Europe require both a mix and volumes that we have not yet seen.
We cut '26e adj. EBITA by 7%
We lower our sales and adj. EBITA estimates following the report, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for North Europe. '26e-'27e sales are down 2.2-2.5% because of the report and updated FX. Adj. EBITA is cut by 7-2% for '26e-'27e. Our EPS estimates are up due to lower than expected net financials. Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~7x NTM EV/EBITA.