Nilörn: Fit for performance - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
- Earnings naturally hedged
- Potential to generate order intake above the historical average
- NTM EV/EBIT just short of 8x
What to look for in Q2'25
In Q2'25, we expect positive organic growth of 2%, which implies sales of SEK 245m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 28m, corresponding to a margin of 11.5%. Our updated Q2 estimates therefore imply a negative estimate revision of -4% for Q2 sales, although EBIT is unchanged due to favourable FX changes. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of ~SEK 210-220m, i.e. flat to slightly up. For reference, an order intake of SEK 210-220m is above the historical average of ~190m (excluding Q2'20).
Minor estimate changes
We have lowered our '25e-'27e sales by 1%. However, FX should provide a tailwind in 2025, so we are raising EBIT by 3%. '26e-'27e are more consistent with the sales cut, as we have reduced EBIT by 3-2% due to a weaker product mix in terms of margins, as the packaging offering grows. Readers should note that an FX drag has a negative impact on sales, but a positive impact on gross margins and the opex base, and Nilörn is therefore naturally hedged. We continue to believe that Nilörn's investments in Bangladesh and Portugal will help the company gain market share, particularly given the changing landscape of the supply chain (i.e. shifting from China to other countries). In terms of financial targets, Nilörn should be able to achieve its margin target this year.
Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading slightly below 8x NTM EV/EBIT. We also note that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is approximately 10% below the corresponding five-year median.
- Potential to generate order intake above the historical average
- NTM EV/EBIT just short of 8x
What to look for in Q2'25
In Q2'25, we expect positive organic growth of 2%, which implies sales of SEK 245m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 28m, corresponding to a margin of 11.5%. Our updated Q2 estimates therefore imply a negative estimate revision of -4% for Q2 sales, although EBIT is unchanged due to favourable FX changes. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of ~SEK 210-220m, i.e. flat to slightly up. For reference, an order intake of SEK 210-220m is above the historical average of ~190m (excluding Q2'20).
Minor estimate changes
We have lowered our '25e-'27e sales by 1%. However, FX should provide a tailwind in 2025, so we are raising EBIT by 3%. '26e-'27e are more consistent with the sales cut, as we have reduced EBIT by 3-2% due to a weaker product mix in terms of margins, as the packaging offering grows. Readers should note that an FX drag has a negative impact on sales, but a positive impact on gross margins and the opex base, and Nilörn is therefore naturally hedged. We continue to believe that Nilörn's investments in Bangladesh and Portugal will help the company gain market share, particularly given the changing landscape of the supply chain (i.e. shifting from China to other countries). In terms of financial targets, Nilörn should be able to achieve its margin target this year.
Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading slightly below 8x NTM EV/EBIT. We also note that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is approximately 10% below the corresponding five-year median.