Nolato: From margin recovery to higher growth - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q4 results due on Thursday, 5 February
* Estimates up 2-4% organically, but neutralised by FX
* Margin expansion largely realised, now comes growth
Q4 expectations
We expect Nolato to report Q4 net sales of SEK 2,311m, down 3% y-o-y, of which +3% is organic growth and -6% from FX. We also expect both segments to contribute to significant y-o-y margin expansion, which similarly to prior quarters should be driven by improved pricing and utilisation rates. This amounts to an estimated EBITA of SEK 275m, up 15% y-o-y, for a margin of 11.9% (10.1). Apart from the Q4 numbers, we will focus on qualitative comments regarding the timeline of product validation and commercial volume ramp-up of the company's new expansion in Hungary as this will be a key factor for accelerating growth during '26e, which we discuss more below.
Raised organic assumptions offset by FX
We make organic, top-line-driven EBITA upgrades of 2-4% for '26e-'27e. However, updating FX assumptions cuts EBITA by 3% per year, roughly neutralising the organic upgrades and resulting in overall EBITA revisions of -1% for '26e and +1% for '27e.
Organic growth and cash conversion to improve
During '25e, earnings growth was driven mainly by margins recovering to historical levels, which the company had been trending below since '22. Going into '26e, we expect margin expansion to slow somewhat, and model an improvement of +0.5pp compared to +1.6pp y-o-y in '25e. However, we argue organic growth should instead accelerate, driven by the aforementioned expansion in Hungary, which at full utilisation will add ~7% to sales. This supports an estimated '25e-'27e EBITA CAGR of 9%, while lower capex (also due to the now finished expansion) and a '25e ND/EBITDA of 0.5x leave plenty of room for M&A. Finally, the share is trading at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, somewhat below its 5Y average of 15.2x, and we note that in the past five years the highest-quality segment - Medical Solutions - has gone from 34% of group EBITA to 59%.
* Estimates up 2-4% organically, but neutralised by FX
* Margin expansion largely realised, now comes growth
Q4 expectations
We expect Nolato to report Q4 net sales of SEK 2,311m, down 3% y-o-y, of which +3% is organic growth and -6% from FX. We also expect both segments to contribute to significant y-o-y margin expansion, which similarly to prior quarters should be driven by improved pricing and utilisation rates. This amounts to an estimated EBITA of SEK 275m, up 15% y-o-y, for a margin of 11.9% (10.1). Apart from the Q4 numbers, we will focus on qualitative comments regarding the timeline of product validation and commercial volume ramp-up of the company's new expansion in Hungary as this will be a key factor for accelerating growth during '26e, which we discuss more below.
Raised organic assumptions offset by FX
We make organic, top-line-driven EBITA upgrades of 2-4% for '26e-'27e. However, updating FX assumptions cuts EBITA by 3% per year, roughly neutralising the organic upgrades and resulting in overall EBITA revisions of -1% for '26e and +1% for '27e.
Organic growth and cash conversion to improve
During '25e, earnings growth was driven mainly by margins recovering to historical levels, which the company had been trending below since '22. Going into '26e, we expect margin expansion to slow somewhat, and model an improvement of +0.5pp compared to +1.6pp y-o-y in '25e. However, we argue organic growth should instead accelerate, driven by the aforementioned expansion in Hungary, which at full utilisation will add ~7% to sales. This supports an estimated '25e-'27e EBITA CAGR of 9%, while lower capex (also due to the now finished expansion) and a '25e ND/EBITDA of 0.5x leave plenty of room for M&A. Finally, the share is trading at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, somewhat below its 5Y average of 15.2x, and we note that in the past five years the highest-quality segment - Medical Solutions - has gone from 34% of group EBITA to 59%.