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Third party research

NYAB: 32% organic growth, but slight margin miss - ABG

NYAB

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* EBIT 10% below ABGSC, 12% below consensus* 32% organic growth (vs ABGSC 16%), 6% order backlog growth* Estimates to come off ~3% on slightly lower marginsQ3 resultsSales were EUR 150m (0% vs ABGSCe 150m and 0% vs cons 150m), +60% y-o-y (whereof 32% organic, vs ABGSCe 16%). The acquisition of Dovre contributed a bit less than expected, but we think this was mainly due to seasonality. Meanwhile, organic growth in the organic business was stronger than we expected. EBITA was 12m (-10% vs ABGSCe 13m), and EBIT 11m (-10% vs ABGSCe 13m and -12% vs cons 13m), +27% y-o-y and a margin of 7.5% (vs ABGSCe 8.4% and cons 8.6%). Net profit 9m (-11% vs ABGSCe 10m and -15% vs cons 10m). FCF remained strong at 9m (77% EBITA conversion) for an LTM conversion of 123% of EBITA.Outlook and estimate changesOn the market outlook, management said that activity in Sweden remains high and Finland more cautious although planned transmission grid investments should lead to higher activity in Finland coming years. In Norway, it said activity has been high but is expected to ease somewhat into 2026. The order backlog in the Civil Engineering segment was EUR 404m in Q3, corresponding to an increase of 6% y-o-y, which provide support for further growth in our view. In terms of estimate changes, we expect that consensus will cut 2026 EBIT slightly (~3%) on slightly lower margins in Q3.Final thoughtsWe think the report was solid, with high reported growth, solid order growth, margins, and cash flow. Based on our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 10x EBITA on 2026, slightly below both Nordic construction and infra peers.
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