* Soft quarter, brighter outlook
* We raise our EBIT estimates by 3-2% for '26e-'27e
* Early signs of a better market environment
Q1'26 report
Ogunsen reported Q1’26 sales of SEK 115m, down 2% y-o-y, reflecting lower hourly rates in the consulting segment and weaker demand in the recruitment segment. Sales were flat in the consulting segment at SEK 106m, and now correspond to 93% of total sales. The recruiting segment has historically been affected by weaker demand, and Q1 sales decreased by 18% to SEK 8m. Even if the top-line remains soft due to weaker demand in the market, Ogunsen kept adj. EBIT flat at SEK 6m (SEK 6m in Q1’25) and came in above our expectations at SEK 5m, with a margin of 5.3% (5.2% in Q1'25 adjusted for one-off costs last year), supported by a leaner organisation and AI-driven efficiency, which we expect to support margins going forward.
Slightly increased EBIT estimates
After years of a declining consulting market alongside headwinds from lower demand and pricing pressure, we think that market conditions are slowly showing early signs of easing. As such, we slightly raise our '26e-'27e EBIT estimates by 3-2%.
Trading at 10x/8x EV/EBIT for '26e/'27e
Ogunsen is trading at 10x/8x EV/EBIT for ’26e/’27e and is well-positioned to benefit from improving market conditions in H2’26. Consulting volumes are slightly rising and should support sales as pricing recovers, while early signs of somewhat stronger recruitment demand could add upside in the longer term given the segment’s high margins, driving earnings into next year.