OrganoClick: Expect gains in GCMP, pressure elsewhere - ABG

* Report out on 5 November* Q3e sales of SEK 27m (29m), EBIT SEK -5m (-3m)* GC&MP the bright spot, other segments under pressureQ3 expectationsQ3 marks the beginning of the second half of the year, which is typically weaker for OrganoClick (particularly in GC&MP and FW) due to seasonal effects, as building and DIY activity typically slow down in H2. For Q3, we estimate sales of SEK 27m, -6% y-o-y and -9% q-o-q (NW&FT: -15% y-o-y, FW: -6% y-o-y, GC&MP: +5% y-o-y) and EBIT of SEK -5m (-3m). NW&FT is expected to remain under pressure due to weak demand in the restaurant sector and price pressure from fossil-based plastic binders. For FW, we anticipate the challenging Swedish construction market to persist, though continued momentum in Germany should help offset some of the softness in the segment. The bright spot for OrganoClick remains its GC&MP segment, where we expect a rebound after a softer Q2 due to inventory build-up among its key customers. Gradually normalising inventories and strong consumer demand should sustain momentum.Estimate changesWe lower our '25e-'27e sales by 2% and total '25e-'27e EBIT by SEK 2.8m, incorporating the expected costs associated with the rights issue. We continue to expect '25e to remain under pressure due to weak end-markets, but forecast a turnaround to positive EBIT in '26e driven by recovering end-markets, new product launches, and cost savings initiatives.ValuationOrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-1.7x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 5.0x-1.3x. Although OrganoClick has secured financing in the near term, we continue to believe that it must demonstrate improved profitability to mitigate long-term liquidity risk. We lower our fair value range to SEK 1.5-2.5 (2.0-3.0) to incorporate more cautious scenarios regarding the company’s profitability development.