* Strong Q1e: sales +196% y-o-y, 30% EBIT margin
* Small estimate revisions
* Ovzon-3 still not at full capacity: 18x 2026e EV/EBIT
Strong Q1 on the cards
Demand for SATCOM continues to grow, and Ovzon, being a market leader in its niche, is capitalising on this well. Although order activity has recently been slow in the seasonally quiet Q1, the end-of-Q4 backlog was SEK 1bn (of which ~SEK 800m is to be delivered in 2026), which bodes well for strong sales in the near term. Apart from the ongoing contribution of the breakthrough FMV order, which reached full capacity in Q4, the company has signed an Ovzon-3-related order with the UK MoD that was utilised by mid-Q1. On the flipside, we expect a slight sequential headwind from the SSC contract from Dec'25 that has so far not been renewed. All in all, we forecast SATCOM revenue of SEK 192m, up 152% y-o-y. Combined with Terminal sales of SEK 75m, we estimate Q1 sales at SEK 267m, +196% y-o-y. Regarding GMs, we expect a favourable mix given the high share of SATCOM sales. Although opex is gradually increasing, operational leverage remains high, leading us to forecast Q1 EBIT of SEK 81m (30% EBIT margin), up from SEK -16m in Q1'25.
Fine-tuned estimate revisions
We make small revisions to our forecasts, and now expect 2026e sales of SEK 1,072m, up from SEK 735m in 2025, with estimate visibility comparably high. While the recent USD 1.3m order with the US DoW was small in absolute terms, the signal value is much more significant given that it is the first order from this customer since August 2024. Therefore, we anticipate that more orders will be announced.
We expect more Ovzon-3 signings ahead
The stock is +27% YTD and is trading at 18x 2026e EV/EBIT. We expect more Ovzon-3-related signings throughout the year and are looking forward to getting more details on potentially new satellite projects (which current demand is supporting, we argue).