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Third party research

Petrolia Noco: New discovery adds NOK ~0.75/sh to NAV - ABG

Petrolia

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* Q2 below ABGSCe; revenues in line, but costs higher* Talisker adds NOK ~0.75/sh to NAV* Fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5 (1.2-3.7)Q2 below ABGSCe; revenues in line, but costs higherPNO reported Q2 revenues of NOK 136m, in line with ABGSCe at NOK 134m. EBITDAX of NOK 73m was below our estimate of NOK 81m, mainly due to operational expenses of NOK 46m (ABGSCe NOK 37m). Net production in Q2'25 was 1,951boe/d vs. 2,150boe/d in Q1'25 and our estimate for Q2'25 of 2,138boe/d. The company exited Q2'25 with a cash position of NOK 26m, up from NOK 15m at the end of Q1'25. We make minor changes to our company specific estimate, and we apply our latest oil market view as described in "In the absence of war, the oil market is well supplied", lowering our Brent assumption to USD 70/bbl (72.5) for H2'25e and FY'26e, while reiterating our long term price forecast of USD 80/bbl. In summary, we now estimate FY'26 -'27 EBITDAX of NOK 339m and NOK 405m.Talisker adds NOK ~0.75/sh to NAVLast week, OKEA with its partners Lime (33.84%), DNO (14.26%), PNO (12.26%) and M Vest Energy (4.44%), announced that the Talisker well in the Brage licence (PL 055) has discovered recoverable resources of 16–33m boe. Assuming a multiple of 4.5/boe, this adds ~0.75/sh to our NAV, and fair value range. Further, we note that PNO has increased 2P reserves on Brage from 1.38m boe at YE'24 to 2.01m boe on 30 June 2025, as new production coming on stream in early '26 has been included. This came in line with our expectations as we earlier made substantial estimate increases to our Brage field model, which we now reiterate: "Brage reserve uplift boosts production outlook".Fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5 (1.2-3.7)We estimate a NAV of NOK 4.3/sh for PNO, and a fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5/sh. If we work backwards to the discounted oil price, we argue that, all else equal, an oil price of ~USD 45/bbl is discounted in PNO, based on the current share price of NOK 1.50/sh.
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