NOI estimates up by 3-4%, CEPS slightly negative Near-term focus on consolidation P/CEPS ~13x vs sector-average of ~18x
Project completions and CPI generate solid growth in 2023
Stenhus delivered Q4 NOI +4% vs ABGSCe. Moreover, net interest was lower-than-expected, leading to a rec. PTP beat of +9%, or SEK 7m (SEK 80m vs ABGSCe at SEK 73m). The updated earnings capacity leads us to increase our top-line estimates by ~4-5% for 2023-2024 while the lower-than-expected NOI margin in Q4'22 filters through somewhat. All in all, we forecast NOI growth of ~42% y-o-y in 2023, driven by e.g., the Randviken merger only contributing in H2 2022, indexation and project completions. That said, growth is offset by higher interest rates and Stenhus' relatively short interest maturity of 1.1 years, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~2% and ~1% for 2023e-2024e, respectively.