* Q1 surprised on gross margin: 45% vs. our 42% * Pricer transition a temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum * Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
Strong gross margin and a decent quarter
Q1'26 delivered revenues of NOK 342m, below our NOK 356m estimate, with strong growth in UK & Ireland (+93%) and Spain (+13%) offset by weakness in Norway and Sweden. The gross margin came in at 45% vs. our 42% assumption, yielding gross profit ~3% above our estimate despite the softer top line. Clean opex was ~1% better than our forecast. This brought EBITDA to NOK 10m vs. our NOK 4m estimate, with the margin landing at 2.9%
Pricer transition temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum
The phase-out of Pricer-related recurring revenue will remain a headwind through 2026, with the rolling 12-month ESL licence and service base declining from NOK 52m at end-2025 to zero by end-2026; a NOK 10m hit already visible in Q1. The offset is coming, but is taking time. UK & Ireland grew 93% in Q1, driven by Vusion ESL installation work alongside AutoStore, and the gross margin expanded from 42% to 45% as lower-margin ESL hardware rollouts gave way to higher-value service revenue. Management remains positive on the Vusion partnership as it offers a broader platform opportunity with products such as EdgeSense, shelf-edge cameras and retail media.
Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
Q1 was not a step-change quarter, but it was a stable one, with flattish revenue and EBITDA in line with last year. The pipeline is building, with Iceland Foods, NorgesGruppen and three new AutoStore contracts all signed in the quarter. The path to sustained profitability will have ups and downs, as the CEO acknowledged, and the Sainsbury's rollout moving slower than expected is a reminder that large projects carry execution risk. That said, things seem to be moving in the right direction for StrongPoint. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 650m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share.