* Net sales SEK 616m, -1% vs ABGSCe and Factset cons.
* EBITA SEK 83m, -6% vs ABGSCe, -4% vs cons
* Report moves cons. '26e EBITA by -1%
Q3 in brief: a rare show of softer UK growth
Overall, we consider Svedbergs Group's Q3 report slightly softer than Factset consensus expectations. Net sales were SEK 616m, -1% vs ABGSCe and cons, corresponding to -1.5% organic growth. Net sales growth of 17% was driven by the Central Europe segment after the UBC inclusion, which also outperformed our forecast slightly. Gross margins declined 140bp y-o-y on the back of the UBC inclusion and input cost inflation that was flagged in Q2, however the magnitude was larger than we had forecast. The resulting EBITA of SEK 83m was -6% vs ABGSCe and -4% vs cons. The miss versus our forecast is almost entirely driven by the UK segment which faces a soft end-market that resulted in -1.8% LCCY growth and adverse currency effects on the gross margin. In mid September, Svedbergs communicated a cost-savings programme in its Swedish business. We had expected a restructuring cost of SEK 5m, and the outcome was communicated at SEK 9.5m, which weighs on non-adjusted (Svedbergs Group's EBITA metric is adjusted) earnings by an incremental SEK 4.5m.
Outlook: logistics and cost savings take effect in 2027
In Q2, management described underlying demand as decent despite geopolitical uncertainty. The CEO repeats the sentiment in this report stating that despite remaining market uncertainty it sees cautiously positive market signals. Logistics efficiences that have weighed on the UK segment profitability since Q1'26 is expected by the CEO to be resolved by Q1'27. The cost-savings programme in Svedbergs is expected to have full effect from Q2'27. UBC integration is progressing according to plan, with the ambition to lift UBC to the group’s 15% EBITA margin target.
Conclusion: the report moves cons. '26e EBITA by -1%
The share has returned -1.5% L3M, which can suggest somewhat low expectations into numbers, and is now trading at 11x-8x our '26e/'27e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 7x-11x NTM. The Q3 report moves consensus' '26e EBITA by -1%.