* Q1: +11% sales growth, 3.2% EBITDA margin
* '26e EBITDA up 2%
* Guarding continues to take steps forward
Starting the year on a positive note
Tempest continues to deliver improvements, with Q1 EBITDA coming in 6% above ABGSCe. Guarding grew sales by ~13% (adjusted for the transfer of personal protection into the segment), while EBITDA improved from SEK 8m to SEK 10m. This marks a solid step forward, with focus on stable volume growth and management noting healthy demand within the SOC, a highly scalable area that is interesting for the future. Risk Solutions saw top-line sales decline by SEK 0.5m (adj.) but improved EBITDA from a loss in Q1'25 to a SEK 0.6m profit in Q1'26, driven by Denmark and Sweden. Looking at the broader market, pricing has been a challenge in the security space, but with growing demand for security services, market pricing is improving. As Tempest has scaled, it has established itself as a credible player, which in turn makes bidding for new contracts easier.
'26e EBITDA up 2%
We leave '26e-'28e sales fairly flat and lift '26e EBITDA by 2% due to the good performance and momentum in Guarding. We expect the performance to continue as Tempest maintains its core business focus and continues its efficiency improvements, while Denmark and the UK are delivering better results. Q1 is a seasonally weaker quarter, and now we are entering high season (Q2 and Q3) where we think Tempest can keep the positive momentum.
Focus on core operations
We believe the company took important steps throughout '25, with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring decrease, planning and efficiency improve and Tempest can sell additional services that improve profitability.