Trianon: Lower NOI margin but limited full-year impact - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
NOI and IFPM in earnings capacity up by ~5% and ~4%
5.5% value changes and valuation yield 3.9% (4.2% Q3)
186 renovated apartments in 2021 (132)
Q4 NOI margin lower (63.5%) vs. ABGSCe (67.9%)
Rental income came in at SEK 160m (148m) compared to our forecast of SEK 166m. Net operating income (NOI) amounted to SEK 102m (99m), relative to our estimate of SEK 113m, mainly explained by higher electricity costs. Income from property management (IFPM) was SEK 64m (54m) compared to our forecast of SEK 73m. Net leasing summed up to SEK 0.8m (1m) and SEK 5.5m (9m) trailing 12 months. Trianon renovated 54 apartments in Q4, resulting in 186 for the full year (132 in 2020). DPS is proposed to SEK 2.00 (1.80) vs ABGSCe 2.00.
EPRA NRVPS +47% y-o-y (adj. for DPS) to SEK 145 (101)
Unrealised and realised value changes amounted to SEK 609m (85m) or + 5.5%, we expected SEK 101m or 0.9%. EPRA NRVPS increased 47% y-o-y (adj. for DPS) to SEK 18 (101), 10% higher than our forecast of SEK 131. The valuation yield excl. projects was 3.9%, compared to 4.2% in Q3. Residential and offices were down the most. The Q4 net LTV came down to 53.5% from 56.3% in Q3, helped by the SEK 400m share issue in November.
25x and 1.23x P/IFPM and P/EPRA NRV
The share is trading at ‘23e P/IFPM of ~25x and P/EPRA NRV of 1.23x. These valuation metrics are some ~40% (P/IFPM) below and ~15% (P/EPRA NRV) above consensus for peers such as Balder, K2A and Wallenstam. The isolated Q4 numbers would imply negative estimate revisions of ~2%.
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5.5% value changes and valuation yield 3.9% (4.2% Q3)
186 renovated apartments in 2021 (132)
Q4 NOI margin lower (63.5%) vs. ABGSCe (67.9%)
Rental income came in at SEK 160m (148m) compared to our forecast of SEK 166m. Net operating income (NOI) amounted to SEK 102m (99m), relative to our estimate of SEK 113m, mainly explained by higher electricity costs. Income from property management (IFPM) was SEK 64m (54m) compared to our forecast of SEK 73m. Net leasing summed up to SEK 0.8m (1m) and SEK 5.5m (9m) trailing 12 months. Trianon renovated 54 apartments in Q4, resulting in 186 for the full year (132 in 2020). DPS is proposed to SEK 2.00 (1.80) vs ABGSCe 2.00.
EPRA NRVPS +47% y-o-y (adj. for DPS) to SEK 145 (101)
Unrealised and realised value changes amounted to SEK 609m (85m) or + 5.5%, we expected SEK 101m or 0.9%. EPRA NRVPS increased 47% y-o-y (adj. for DPS) to SEK 18 (101), 10% higher than our forecast of SEK 131. The valuation yield excl. projects was 3.9%, compared to 4.2% in Q3. Residential and offices were down the most. The Q4 net LTV came down to 53.5% from 56.3% in Q3, helped by the SEK 400m share issue in November.
25x and 1.23x P/IFPM and P/EPRA NRV
The share is trading at ‘23e P/IFPM of ~25x and P/EPRA NRV of 1.23x. These valuation metrics are some ~40% (P/IFPM) below and ~15% (P/EPRA NRV) above consensus for peers such as Balder, K2A and Wallenstam. The isolated Q4 numbers would imply negative estimate revisions of ~2%.
Läs mer på Introduce