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Analyst Comment

Remedy’s Alan Wake 2 will be released on October 17

By Atte RiikolaAnalyst
Remedy Entertainment

Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 5/25/2023 at 8:42 am.

Remedy and Epic Games announced a brand new trailer for Alan Wake 2 at Wednesday's Playstation Showcase event and that the game will be released on Tuesday October 17, 2023. More information about the game can be found in Remedy's press release and on Alan Wake’s website, where the game is also available for pre-order. Based on a quick review, initial reactions to the trailer from players on social media seem largely positive.

Release date very close to our projections

In our projections, we had scheduled the release at the end of September, so the official release date is now very much in line with this. Based on our current assumptions, the game would have to sell roughly 2 million copies before recouping the production and marketing budget funded by Epic. After that, the companies split the net proceeds of the game in half. For now, we expect the game to start generating royalties for Remedy from Q2'24, but the actual outcome could be affected by many variables, both good and bad. We have discussed our assumptions in more detail in our latest Q1 update.

Alan Wake 2 will be a digital-only game

An interesting observation about the release news is that Alan Wake 2 will only be released as a digital version. This allows the initial selling price of the game to be kept a notch lower than many other games developed for the new generation of consoles, as the cost of producing and distributing physical copies of the game is eliminated. On the Epic Store, for example, the price of the standard version of the game appears to be roughly 50 euros. On the PlayStation Store, the prices for the standard version and the deluxe version, which includes future expansions, are roughly 60 euros and 80 euros, respectively.

The lack of physical copies is likely to cause annoyance among some game enthusiasts who collect game boxes. In the big picture, the importance of physical copies for game sales has declined dramatically over the last 5 years. Given this trend and the cost savings to be made, the decision is very understandable.

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Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures26.04.2023

202223e24e
Revenue43.636.362.1
growth-%-2.5 %-16.7 %71.0 %
EBIT (adj.)-0.6-11.86.8
EBIT-% (adj.)-1.3 %-32.4 %11.0 %
EPS (adj.)-0.13-0.880.40
Dividend0.100.100.17
Dividend %0.5 %0.6 %1.0 %
P/E (adj.)neg.neg.41.6
EV/EBITDA126.5neg.13.3

Forum discussions

That followers/members tracking was handy, thanks! At this stage, so soon after the announcement, wishlists are significantly higher than the...
13 hours ago
by Akee
17
And with this game too, there will surely be sales (and probably offers) for e.g. Control 1. For me, at least, it made me think, ‘oh, maybe ...
13 hours ago
by Zesvel
3
You can see the follower count directly here: https://steamcommunity.com/games/3669870/members Now 13681. When estimating the number of wishlists...
15 hours ago
by Hasty
20
It seems quite clear that both characters are in the game and are related to the story. The open question is whether both are playable. It’s...
yesterday
by Jarnis
2
Unsurprisingly, some parts of the Internet are of the opinion that changing the main character is a mistake and the game is now ruined. From...
yesterday
by Flouride
5
Let’s make a separate poll to see if it works this way Control Resonant track sales by the end of 2026 Under 0.5M 0.5M - 0.99M 1M - 1.49M 1....
yesterday
by Henkka
3
Very much along the same lines. This increasing probability of momentum is further strengthened when examining the trend in the number of Nordnet...
yesterday
by Henkka
7
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