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Osakeanalyysipalvelut, analyytikko
Analyytikko
Q1 showed weakening for ESL this year, yet the guidance downgrade and recent Supramax comments indicate larger short-term headwinds than seen only a while back.
The main reason for Aspo's 2023 EBIT guidance downgrade on 12 May was ESL Shipping, but the outlook is also challenging for the Telko and Leipurin segments. New EBIT guidance is EUR 25-35m for the full year, which is a relatively wide range.
Aspo’s Q1 results came in quite close to estimates. ESL’s outlook for the year has softened a bit more than we previously estimated, but new vessel investments should take the carrier to a whole new level in the coming years.
Q1 revenues were 3% below Refinitiv consensus and clean EBIT was 7% below. Aspo kept its full-year 2023 guidance intact, but the outlook for the ESL Shipping segment in Q2-Q4 2023 is not very strong.
Aspo’s Q1 results were a bit lower than estimated. We find there to have been mixed development underneath as Telko on the one hand beat our estimates while on the other ESL’s profitability softened more than we had estimated.
We expect a relatively good first quarter for ESL Shipping, due to increased q/q volumes, despite Finland's port strike and low yields in the shipping markets.
Aspo’s Q4 didn’t hold big news, however the segments’ EBIT paths may diverge a bit this year after a very strong FY ’22.
Q4 net sales came in 1% above our estimate, but clean EBIT was 7% below our expectation. The Telko segment was weaker than we had anticipated.
ESL Shipping segment was a positive surprise compared to our estimates in Q4, one reason being coal shipments during the quarter. However, demand and price levels have decreased in sea transportation markets.
Aspo’s Q4 results landed relatively close to estimates. ESL once again produced very high profitability, and outlook continues to be strong, while Telko’s profitability has decreased considerably after H1’22.
