Gubra (One-pager): A clinically pivotal quarter, with two obesity assets advancing toward Phase 2

We have updated our One-pager investment case on Gubra to reflect the Q1 2026 trading statement, the revised CRO guidance, and the clinical newsflow across the pipeline. The quarter has incrementally strengthened the D&P-driven equity value case, while the CRO downgrade has only a limited impact on our valuation framework given the segment's modest share of total enterprise value.

The defining event of the quarter was AbbVie's MAD readout for ABBV-295. The data are competitive against Eli Lilly's eloralintide (the current Phase 1 benchmark in the amylin class), particularly when adjusted for the fact that lower-BMI populations are typically associated with lower weight-loss responsiveness. The comparable efficacy across weekly, every-other-week, and monthly dosing also supports the long half-life as a real differentiator. AbbVie has reiterated that ABBV-295 remains a cornerstone obesity asset, with Phase 2 initiation guided to Q3 2026. We view this as the most material de-risking event for Gubra in the quarter.

Boehringer Ingelheim's decision to advance BI 3034701 into Phase 2 in mid-2026 is the second meaningful pipeline development. With this, Gubra now has two partnered obesity assets entering Phase 2 within 2026, a notable broadening of the clinical narrative, which had previously rested primarily on ABBV-295. While Boehringer carries full responsibility for development and the royalty rate is more modest ("high single-digit" per the IPO prospectus), the asset adds an independent shot on goal to the case and validates Gubra's peptide platform and partnering model.

For UCN2, the CTA submission in Germany is a tangible step towards first-in-human dosing in H2 2026 (previously H1 2026,). The Capital Markets Day originally planned for 30 June has been rescheduled to take place after FPFV. UCN2 remains the most differentiated asset in Gubra's portfolio given its CRHR2-selective mechanism and pre-clinical data on muscle preservation, and it sits in a product class with materially less competition.

The CRO downgrade is the only meaningful negative in the quarter. Gubra now guides for 0-10% external revenue growth in 2026 (from 5-15%) and a 10-15% EBIT margin (from 20-25%), reflecting continued softness among smaller biotech clients. Management remains cautiously optimistic about a gradual recovery in H2 2026. From a valuation standpoint, however, the impact on the overall case is limited: applying the updated guidance midpoint to a peer group EV/EBIT multiple of 12.5x implies a CRO segment value of around DKK 332m, a small share of Gubra's enterprise value of DKK 4.6bn. The dominant driver of equity value continues to be the D&P pipeline.

Following the Q1 update, our DCF scenario analysis shows a market-implied PoS of around 22% in the base case, broadly unchanged and slightly below the historical Phase 1 obesity peptide benchmark of 26%. With ABBV-295 set to begin Phase 2 in Q3 2026 and BI 3034701 in mid-2026, the market should over time move to price in the higher Phase 2 benchmark PoS of 46% as those transitions are confirmed. UCN2's progression into the clinic in H2 2026 represents an additional catalyst, with the potential to unlock a separate, internally-owned value pillar. Gubra's net cash position of DKK 975m continues to materially reduce the risk of dilutive capital raises and sets the company apart from most early-stage biotech peers.

The principal risks remain clinical and partner-dependent: ABBV-295, BI 3034701, and UCN2 are all early-stage assets with no guarantee of clearing further clinical and regulatory hurdles, and a significant share of Gubra's future earnings depends on AbbVie and Boehringer Ingelheim continuing to prioritize and advance the programs.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. / Michael Friis, 10:45, 13/05/2026.