Copyright © Inderes 2011 - present. All rights reserved.
  • Senaste
  • Börs
    • Morning Review
    • Aktiejämförelse
    • Börskalender
    • Utdelningskalender
    • Aktieanalys
    • Artiklar
    • Insider Transactions
    • Transkriptioner
  • InderesTV
  • Portfölj
  • Forum
  • Premium
  • Femme
  • Nora AI
  • Learn
    • Investing School
    • Q&A
    • Analysis School
  • Om oss
    • Bolag under bevakning
    • Teamet
Aktieanalys utförd av tredje part

Catella: Impairment burdens Q4 - ABG

Catella

Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar

Ladda ner rapporten (PDF)
* Q4 EBIT of SEK 11m, way below expectations driven by a SEK 151 impairment
* Underlying Corporate Finance and IM better than expected in Q4
* Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today


Q4 EBIT SEK 11m, vs. ABGSC at 101m & consensus at 76m

The Q4’25 EBIT fell y-o-y and came in at SEK 11m (63m), which was 89% below ABGSC and 86% below FactSet consensus. The quarter included some items affecting comparability, including the divestment of Valuation France which contributed SEK 51m to EBIT. This divestment was pre-announced and included in our forecast. Another item affecting comparability was a SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower, one of Catella's Principal investments. This was not pre-announced. If adjusting for the impairment, EBITDA was 40% above consensus and 55% above ABGSC in Q4, which we see as positive. Looking at underlying development, both the Corporate Finance and Investment Management segment delivered stronger than expected results in Q4. Catella proposes a DPS of SEK 0.9 (3% yield), which was below ABGSC expectation, which forecasted DPS of SEK 1.7, and also below consensus which expected SEK 1.34.


AUM of SEK 155bn in Q4, 2% below consensus forecast

Net sales in Q4 came in at SEK 465m (979m), which was 5% above ABGSC's forecast but 6% below consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 36m, 70% below ABGSC and 73% below FactSet consensus. The large deviation is stemming from the SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower. The AUM came in at SEK 155.3bn, down 3% q-o-q (SEK -5bn), which was 3% below ABGSC forecast and 2% below consensus. The decrease compared to the end of the third quarter, was primarily driven by FX headwinds (SEK 3bn) and negative net outflow of SEK 1bn. We believe the lower-than-expected AUM base in Q4 will trigger negative consensus earnings revisions for 2026-27e.


Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today

We expect consensus to cut their 2026-‘27e EBIT by 5-10% driven by the lower AUM base. Given the earnings miss in Q4, with negative consensus revisions following the report, we expect the share to come down today.
Följ oss på våra kanaler i social media
  • Inderes Forum
  • Youtube
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • X (Twitter)
  • Tiktok
  • Linkedin
Ta kontakt
  • info@inderes.fi
  • +358 10 219 4690
  • Porkkalankatu 5
    00180 Helsinki
Inderes
  • Om oss
  • Teamet
  • Jobba hos oss
  • Inderes som en investering
  • Tjänster för börsbolag
Vår plattform
  • FAQ
  • Servicevillkor
  • Integritetspolicy
  • Disclaimer
Inderes disclaimer gällande utförda aktieanalyser kan läsas här. För mer detaljerad information över de aktier som aktivt bevakas av Inderes, vänligen se respektive bolags bolagsspecifika sida på Inderes webbplats. © Inderes Oyj. Alla rättigheter förbehållna.