* Transaction activity improving while AUM remains subdued
* EBIT estimates cut for 2026-28e
* Cost discipline and product innovation key to recovery
Gradual recovery in transaction activity, but AUM remains soft
We expect transaction activity to have improved in Q3, supporting Corporate Finance, although earnings conversion remains gradual. We forecast group net sales of SEK 348m (8% above FactSet consensus) and EBIT of SEK 20m (21% below FactSet consensus at SEK 26m). Within Investment Management, we expect AUM to remain flat at SEK 160.4bn (1% below consensus), reflecting net outflows and subdued property valuations. Management continues to streamline operations, potentially resulting in restructuring costs towards year-end.
Trimming estimates as earnings recovery takes longer
We lower our EBIT estimates by 36%, 33% and 28% for 2026-28e, respectively, reflecting a slower recovery in transaction-related revenues and continued AUM pressure. We expect restructuring costs towards year-end, but assume these will be behind us from 2027, supporting operating leverage. Meanwhile, Catella needs to secure new mandates and convert its pipeline into transactions to support fee generation. We expect a gradual earnings recovery from 2027, although near-term visibility remains limited.
Operational improvements needed to unlock value
While Catella's valuation remains undemanding at 4.1x 2027e and 2.4x 2028e EV/EBIT, we believe a sustained earnings recovery will require more than improving transaction markets. In our view, tighter cost control and a more competitive product offering, including new funds and investment strategies, will be key to restoring organic AUM growth. Although the strong balance sheet provides flexibility, we believe tangible progress on these initiatives is needed.