Eolus: Divestments pending, strategic shift ahead - ABG

* Waiting for sales of Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås wind projects* ~470 MW under construction* Trading at '26e-'27e P/Es of 4x-6xWaiting for divestment of Dållebo, Boarp and FågelåsEolus reported Q3 net sales of SEK 200m (cons. 123m; 24m LY), driven by revenue recognition in Pome. Adj. EBIT was SEK -69m (cons. -62m). In the coming quarters, we expect divestments of the onshore wind projects Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås (88 MW). A 15-year PPA was signed in Q3 for a major share of production, which should support project-level financing, free up tied capital and attract investors through long-term revenue visibility. The Roccasecca BESS project (127 MW) also advanced to construction with a tolling agreement securing future cash flows over a considerable period. Eolus aims to divest Roccasecca early in the process, unlike Pome where construction risk was retained.Estimate changes and outlookWe raise our ’25e sales by SEK 900m on higher-than-expected capex in Fågelås, Boarp and Dållebo. As these projects near completion, full capex should be reimbursed and recognised in the P&L upon divestment, which we currently have in Q4 in our estimates. However, estimates should be interpreted with caution, as the outcome depends on several factors that remain uncertain. Moreover, we lower our project margin expectations and make some timing adjustments in the portfolio. The lowered margins combined with anticipated cost savings lead to a total '25e-'27e EBIT cut of SEK 70m.Strategic calibration in Q3During Q3, Eolus refined its strategy with three focus areas: 1) Increase early-stage transactions, as in Fageråsen; 2) Tighten project prioritisation to focus on highest-value opportunities; 3) Elevate battery storage and hybrid projects to core technologies alongside onshore wind. Eolus’ current ~25 GW portfolio includes ~470 MW under construction.