Inission: Bottom multiples at the bottom of the cycle - ABG
Tämä on kolmannen osapuolen analyysi, eikä välttämättä vastaa Inderesin näkemystä tai arvoja
Surprisingly strong orders support view that cycle has bottomed
Soft guidance, but we think company is being conservative
Keep '25e adj. EBITA 11% above guidance, P/E 35% below peers
Q4 results
Sales were in line with our expectations, down 4% y-o-y (+8% M&A), and adj. EBITA beat our expectations by 12%, although there were significant non-recurring costs in the quarter, comprising SEK 4.8m for the listing change project, SEK 3.5m for a provision concerning potential retroactive payroll taxes for '20-'23 in Tunisia, and SEK 1.5m of inventory write-downs in Enedo. This marred the quality of the beat a bit, although we argue that at least the first two charges were true one-off costs and should definitely be adjusted for. We also think that the NRIs were overshadowed by the surprisingly strong order intake of SEK 761m, up 128% y-o-y, beating our expectations by 41%. This corresponds to a book-to-bill of 1.4x, and while there were some larger longer-term orders boosting the figure, the underlying orders were strong as well, reinforcing our belief that the cycle is currently at its bottom, and that we will see a recovery in '25.
Soft guidance, but we think company is being conservative
Keep '25e adj. EBITA 11% above guidance, P/E 35% below peers
Q4 results
Sales were in line with our expectations, down 4% y-o-y (+8% M&A), and adj. EBITA beat our expectations by 12%, although there were significant non-recurring costs in the quarter, comprising SEK 4.8m for the listing change project, SEK 3.5m for a provision concerning potential retroactive payroll taxes for '20-'23 in Tunisia, and SEK 1.5m of inventory write-downs in Enedo. This marred the quality of the beat a bit, although we argue that at least the first two charges were true one-off costs and should definitely be adjusted for. We also think that the NRIs were overshadowed by the surprisingly strong order intake of SEK 761m, up 128% y-o-y, beating our expectations by 41%. This corresponds to a book-to-bill of 1.4x, and while there were some larger longer-term orders boosting the figure, the underlying orders were strong as well, reinforcing our belief that the cycle is currently at its bottom, and that we will see a recovery in '25.