Flügger reports its 2025/26 annual results on Thursday, 25 June 2026, including Q4 figures (February-April). We expect confirmation of the gradual recovery, with full-year revenue and EBIT within guidance, double-digit growth in Poland, and further margin expansion driven by an improved product mix. Our focus will be on Nordic demand from professional painters and private consumers through spring 2026, the new FY2026/27 guidance, capital returns, and the sanctions case.

We expect Q4 to deliver muted top-line growth as the private-label phase-out persists

We estimate full-year revenue of MDKK 2,298, corresponding to revenue growth of 1.1% in FY 2025/26 (2024/25: MDKK 2,272), placing revenue around the midpoint of the guidance range of MDKK 2,200-2,400. With YTD revenue of MDKK 1,715 through Q3, this implies Q4 revenue of MDKK 583, broadly flat compared with MDKK 582 in Q4 2024/25. We view the flat development as a consequence of the ongoing phase-out of private-label and low-price products in Denmark, which weighs on reported revenue while masking underlying progress in the core business among both professional painters and private consumers. We expect double-digit growth in Poland (+10% organic) and continued solid demand in Norway to have supported Q4 performance, partly offsetting these effects. Meanwhile, the Swedish krona shifted from being a tailwind in H1 and Q3 to a modest headwind in Q4.

Improved mix lifts full-year margins despite the seasonal H2 loss

We forecast full-year EBIT of MDKK 108, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 4.7% (2024/25: EBIT of MDKK 94 and an EBIT margin of 4.1%), placing profitability in the mid-end of the guided EBIT margin range of 4.5-5.0%. We estimate EBITDA of MDKK 278 (2024/25: MDKK 267). The expected H2 loss largely reflects the estimated seasonally weak Q3, while Q4 is anticipated to deliver modest profitability. We estimate H2 EBIT of MDKK -32.9 (H2 2024/25: MDKK -46.0) and EPS of DKK -11.01 (H2 2024/25: DKK -20.78). The improvement is driven by gross margin expansion to 56.5% in H1, supported by the continued shift towards own-brand products and professional sales, as well as higher-margin growth in Poland. This sales mix is both margin-accretive and strategically aligned with Flügger’s ambition to increase its share of own-brand sales. Direct exposure to the Middle East conflict remains limited, with approximately 98% of raw materials sourced in Europe. However, shipping rerouting away from the Strait of Hormuz could increase logistics costs, while sustained energy inflation remains a medium-term risk to margins.

FY2026/27 guidance and sustained capital returns in focus

The report will also include Flügger’s own FY2026/27 guidance, which remains a key area of focus. Our estimates for FY2026/27 imply revenue of MDKK 2,369, corresponding to revenue growth of 3.1%, and EBIT of MDKK 139, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 5.9%. We expect the company to propose a dividend of DKK 25.00 per share (2024/25: DKK 20.00), equivalent to a yield of approximately 6.8%, supported by continued deleveraging (bank debt of MDKK 118 at the end of H1 and NIBD/EBITDA of ~1.7x) and strong cash flow generation. Flügger is also executing an ongoing share buyback programme, although its impact remains modest relative to the dividend distribution. An update on the timeline for the sanction’s investigation would also be relevant, given the approximately DKK 10 per share risk adjustment we apply to our DKK 381 DCF valuation.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Flügger for a digitalIR/corporate visibility subscription agreement and research agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg and Victor Skriver 15:00 15/06-2026.