Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/6/2026 at 7:50 am EEST.

On Monday, Kalmar held an analyst and investor call ahead of the Q3 silent period. The company commented that the market environment has remained similar compared to the outlook provided in connection with the Q2 results. There had been slight changes in various market forecasts, but in our view, the big picture remains largely unchanged. Kalmar will publish its Q3 results on October 29.

No changes in demand outlook

Based on the company's comments, there have been no significant changes in its demand outlook compared to the Q2 report. At that time, Kalmar expected overall market demand to remain at approximately the previous quarters' levels over the next six months, although trade tensions and increased geopolitical uncertainty could impact demand. Based on the company's comments, the impacts of the situation in the Middle East have remained limited, with the exception of the rise in oil prices and its reflection on logistics costs. However, we estimate that the company will be able to pass on potential cost inflation to its prices relatively quickly thanks to its strong market position. The company also commented that it has not yet observed the rise in interest rate levels and expectations being reflected significantly in customer decision-making. According to the company, the investment cycles of its customers are typically long (in our view, particularly in ports and terminals), and procurement processes are not changed very quickly. In our view, the risks still relate to the sustainability of the demand situation if inflation and interest rate pressures should be prolonged.

The company has announced slightly more orders for Q3 than in the comparison period. However, in our opinion, one should not draw overly strong conclusions from order announcements due to their timing (especially regarding large equipment orders) or potential delays associated with them. In our view, the order announcements and market commentary support both our (435 MEUR) and consensus (434 MEUR) order forecasts, which are roughly in line with recent quarters. The forecasts are also clearly higher than the subdued comparison period (Q3'25: 375 MEUR).

Market forecasts fairly stable, next year's outlook slightly better

In connection with the call, the company also presented the latest market indicators. For these, the forecasts for the current year had decreased slightly in the big picture, while the forecasts for next year had increased. In the forecasts updated in Q3, Drewry expected global container traffic to grow by 2.8% this year (compared to 3.0% in connection with Kalmar's Q2 report) and to rise to 5.6% next year (was 4.2%). Forecasts for retail and wholesale trade had also declined to 2.0% for the current year (was 2.4%), while forecasts for the coming years remained just below 3%. Industrial production forecasts, on the other hand, had risen to 3.3% for 2026 (was 3.0%) and to 3.8% for next year (was 3.4%). In our view, the most positive aspect of the indicators was the rise in container traffic forecasts, although they have historically fluctuated quite a bit on a regular basis. Based on the company's comments, the increase in next year's forecasts was mainly driven by assumptions that the impacts of the situation in the Middle East would ease, which naturally still involves uncertainty.

Overall, however, we believe the market indicators support the company's comments regarding a fairly stable market environment. Therefore, in our view, the main message of the call was quite neutral.