Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/23/2026 at 8;31 am EET.

Yesterday, Kalmar held an analyst and investor call ahead of the Q4 silent period. The company commented that demand sentiment remained relatively stable in the past quarter compared to the outlook provided with the Q3 results. For the current year, various market forecasts indicate reasonable growth, and overall, the situation largely met our previous expectations.

There have been no material changes in the demand environment

The company described the market situation as remaining stable during the past quarter. Based on this, we estimate that underlying demand has remained at a good level, although we assume there have still been geographical differences due to trade tensions and tariffs. Geographically, the company reiterated its previous message that the demand situation in Europe remains good. Reflecting the comments made in the company's Q3 results, we estimate that the demand situation in the Americas remained weaker compared to long-term levels, although it improved from a sluggish comparison period (e.g., destocking by distributors). Elsewhere in the world, we estimate the situation remained stable. According to Kalmar, it had observed a slight increase in connected equipment in the Americas at the very end of the quarter, but it was still too early to draw any major conclusions based on this. At the same time, it is worth noting that a more detailed development of past activity in the connected equipment base will have to await the results. In addition, the renewed rise in geopolitical and trade tensions, for example concerning the situation in Greenland, has added its own flavor to the development, although at present it seems that additional tariffs, for example, will not be seen. The company has largely been able to pass on previous tariffs to its prices.

The company has already accumulated more order announcements than in Q3, which, on the other hand, also saw fewer large orders than usual. However, Kalmar commented that one should not draw overly strong conclusions from order announcements due to their timing or potential delays associated with them. In addition, announcements naturally require customer consent. In our view, the order announcements and market commentary support both our (441 MEUR) and consensus (437 MEUR) current expectations for a clear pick-up in order intake compared to Q3 (Q3'25: 375 MEUR).

Regarding orders, the company also provided current general guidelines on the size of order announcements. According to the company, the English term "large" refers to single-digit millions of euros, "significant" to low double-digit millions of euros, and "major" to mid-double-digit millions of euros. Other order announcements typically refer to low single-digit millions of euros. 

Market forecasts are at a reasonable level for the current year

In connection with the call, the company also presented market indicators for next year, according to which global GDP is expected to grow by around 3.3%. Similarly, Drewry had again slightly raised its 2025 forecasts (5.5% vs. previous 4.7%) and also its 2026 forecasts to 1.8% (previous 1.3%). Industrial production forecasts for 2026 had risen to 3.0% (from 1.7%), while private consumption forecasts had fallen to 2.2% (from 2.7%). Overall, we believe market development expectations are at a reasonable level at this point, and the market situation is thus somewhat neutral to cautiously positive for Kalmar. However, the company will only comment on its more specific expectations (incl. guidance) in connection with the Q4 results. Kalmar had not yet made final decisions regarding the format of its guidance but considered it likely that it would continue with the current approach (i.e., margin guidance). Kalmar will publish its Q4 results on February 13.