Kalmar: No significant impact from situation in Middle East, at least for now

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/13/2026 at 7:22 am EEST.

On Friday, Kalmar held an analyst and investor call ahead of the Q1 silent period. The company noted that the demand environment has remained unchanged so far compared to the outlook provided in connection with the Q4 result, despite the instability caused by the situation in the Middle East. Various market forecasts had also remained virtually unchanged. However, according to the company, cost inflation could negatively impact the global economy and customer activity if the situation drags on. Kalmar will publish its Q1 results on May 5.

Demand outlook remains unchanged

During the call, the company gave us the impression that the demand outlook it provided with its Q4 report has not changed. At that time, the company expected total demand in H1’26 to remain roughly the same as in H2’25. Based on this, we estimate that demand has remained at a good level, particularly in Europe. We also estimate that customer activity at ports and terminals has remained strong and stable within the industrial and heavy logistics end segments. In contrast, we estimate that uncertainty has continued to influence decision-making within the distribution end-customer segment in the Americas. However, Kalmar commented that markets are slowly becoming accustomed to the current tariff environment. This can also be seen as supporting regional demand to some extent, even though the adaptation has not yet led to a significant increase in orders. Regarding the Americas, the company stated that demand for connected equipment did not increase as much at the beginning of the year as it did at the end of Q4, though activity picked up again toward the end of the quarter. Nevertheless, we believe it is premature to draw far-reaching conclusions on this matter. Otherwise, the company stated that it has not observed any significant changes in activity. At the same time, it is worth noting that a more detailed development of past activity in the connected equipment base will have to await the results.

On the other hand, according to our estimates, the company has accumulated slightly fewer order announcements scheduled for Q1 so far than in the comparison period (Q1’26: 2, one significant and one smaller, vs. Q1'25: 1 significant, 2 large). However, it is not advisable to draw overly strong conclusions from order announcements due to their timing (especially in the case of large equipment orders) or any possible delays related to them. That said, in our view, the order announcements and market comments to date support both our order forecast (461 MEUR) and that of the consensus (473 MEUR), which are solid but slightly lower than in the comparison period (Q1’25: 480 MEUR).

Direct impacts of the Middle East situation are limited, at least for now

At the same time, the situation in the Middle East is currently a major source of uncertainty that could affect global economic trends (such as inflation and interest rates) and consequently, market demand for Kalmar, if it drags on. While the situation has impacted regional development to some extent, the company noted that the Middle East accounts for only a low single-digit percentage of the group’s revenue. We therefore estimate that the direct financial impact on the company will be minimal at this stage. Kalmar also noted that it had not observed any significant impact of the situation in the Middle East on customer decision-making in Europe, at least for the time being. Regarding costs, the company stated that its own operations are not energy-intensive but that the impact is more evident in logistics, which is a significant cost item. Kalmar said it would provide more details on the potential impact of logistics costs in its Q1 report. Naturally, the decisive factor in the overall picture is the situation's ultimate duration, for which the range of possibilities remains wide for the time being. However, thanks to its strong market position (including pricing power), we believe that Kalmar will be able to pass on any cost inflation to its prices fairly quickly, and that the risks lie more with the resilience of the demand side should the situation drag on.

Market forecasts remained stable compared to before

During the call, the company also presented the latest market indicators, which remained largely unchanged. Among these indicators, the IMF’s forecast for global GDP growth remained at just over 3% annually in the coming years. Meanwhile, in its latest forecast, Drewry predicted that global container traffic growth would be 1.8% this year (2.1% at the time of Kalmar’s Q4 report) and rise to 3.6% next year (previously 2.7%). Forecasts for industrial production, in turn, had risen to 3.2% for 2026 (previously 3.0%) and to 3.6% for next year (previously 3.3%). The most notable change was in the private consumption forecasts, which had risen to 2.8% for the current year (previously 2.2%), while those for the coming years remained just under 3%. However, the company itself noted that the stability of the indicators can be considered somewhat surprising amid the recent turbulence. In our view, it is also difficult to assess the extent to which the forecasts consider the situation in the Middle East, and, conversely, it is still too early to evaluate the potential impact of a prolonged conflict. We will watch with interest to see how the forecasts develop over the coming months. For now, however, it appears that if the situation in the Middle East is resolved within a reasonable timeframe and market forecasts remain largely unchanged, the market's growth outlook would be moderate at minimum. Consequently, the market situation would also be at least slightly favorable for Kalmar. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty surrounding this.