Kalmar pre-silent call did not yet provide material additional information on impact of US tariffs

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/8/2025 at 8:30 am EEST.

Yesterday, Kalmar held an analyst and investor call ahead of the Q1 silent period. Based on the comments, the demand situation appeared to have remained similar during Q1 compared to previous quarters. Naturally, since then, the situation has changed due to the import tariffs presented by the United States last week and the retaliatory tariffs. The company did not comment on the effects in more detail during the call but said that it would return to these in more detail in connection with the Q1 earnings, which will be published on April 29.

Demand picture remained unchanged during Q1

The company described that the demand picture developed in Q1 as stable, as indicated in connection with the Q4 earnings. However, it highlighted the relatively large number of major orders for straddle carriers that occurred in Q4. Similarly, it described the underlying demand as continuing similar to previous quarters. The company also repeated its earlier comments that it does not expect the North American distribution segment to recover quickly, although retailers' inventory levels have normalized. Kalmar also reiterated the message that no far-reaching conclusions should be drawn from the orders announced for Q1 so far, due to the potential delay in order announcements.

We expect more detailed comments on tariffs only in connection with the earnings release

As expected, the main focus of the questions was on the impact of the tariffs presented by the USA on the company. At this point, the company did not comment in more detail on the potential impact of possible tariffs on, e.g., its own costs or pricing. At the same time, it emphasized that the situation is constantly evolving and that it would return to the effects in more detail in connection with the earnings. However, it reiterated its previous message that in the US, a significant portion of its revenue comes from locally manufactured terminal tractors, services and spare parts. The company also stated that the supply chains for local production are largely local, but that it is considering possible alternatives for the supply chain and will return to this in more detail in connection with the earnings.

In contrast, for other product areas, the company's sales in the US rely on imports (including spare parts). In terms of relative position, it commented that local manufacturing exists for reachstackers and heavy forklift trucks, where competition is also the fiercest. Similarly, in terms of straddle carriers and container spreaders, competitors also rely on imports. Reflecting on this overall picture, the company commented that, from a relative perspective, the impact of tariffs should be assessed at the product category level. The overall picture, at least at this stage, was quite in line with our initial assessment last week, which can be found here.

Naturally, for Kalmar, new and retaliatory tariffs can be assumed to have negative effects on the entire material handling market, especially if the situation is prolonged. However, the impacts and development are currently still very challenging to assess due to the rapidly changing situation. At the same time, it is worth noting that, due to the existing order backlog, the effects on the company's revenue would be visible with a certain delay, which would also be offset in part by aftermarket services. To reflect the overall picture, however, we will review our estimates and view of the company in connection with the Q1 preview.